The item drop forumla is complex and divided into multiple parts. (Percentages given are specific to this enemy.)
Chest selection - There is a 0% chance of dropping a gold chest. If it fails, there is a 20% chance of dropping a silver chest. If it fails, there is a 100% chance of dropping a wood chest. If it fails, no chest is dropped.
Squads - Only the last enemy in a squad may drop a chest. No matter which enemy it was, the chest will have the drops of the squad's leader (enemy number 1 of the squad's spawnpoint). The chance of getting a gold chest is tripled to 0%, and if this fails, a silver chest is 100% guaranteed if available.
Material selection
Wood chest - There is a 25% chance of dropping the first material. If it fails, the second material is dropped instead. If it succeeds, there is a 70% chance of also getting the second material as well.
Silver/gold chest - This enemy always drops the first material.
Other loot selection - The item selected is based on a straightforward "relative odds" selection, for both the item category and the item in the selected category. If an item from this category has been selected already, duplicates are not allowed.
Crystal strength - This enemy's crystals will vary between 20% and 30% for the first attribute, though there is a 25% chance of it being between 32% and 40% instead. If there is a second attribute, it will use these ranges divided by 2.
As a result of these rules, the resulting probabilities can vary wildly from the raw percentage values, but it is the raw values that matter for effects that alter them, such as Riki's chest-manipulating skills.