2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi
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| Elections in Mississippi |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Mississippi's six votes in the Electoral College were unaffected by reapportionment after the 2020 United States census.[1]
Donald Trump ran on the Republican ballot for a third consecutive time. He easily handled Mississippi in the past two election cycles, winning the state by 17.8% in 2016 and again by 16.5% four years later. Before the election, most news organizations considered Mississippi a safe win for Trump.
Primary elections
[edit]Republican primary
[edit]The Mississippi Republican primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri, and Washington. 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[2]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 229,198 | 92.50% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 13,437 | 5.42% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 4,042 | 1.63% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,096 | 0.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 247,773 | 100.00% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
Democratic primary
[edit]The 2024 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside the Democrats Abroad, Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries, and Northern Mariana Islands caucuses. 40 delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[4]
In Mississippi, candidates have to pay a filing fee of $2,500 and gather at least 500 signatures to make the primary ballot.[5] Incumbent President Joe Biden won the primary, being the only candidate that met these requirements.[6][better source needed]
Winner
[edit]Results
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 87,922 | 98.7% | 35 | ||
| Write-in votes | 1,187 | 1.3% | |||
| Total: | 89,109 | 100.00% | 35 | 35 | |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[8] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[12] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[13] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[14] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[15] | Solid R | September 20, 2024 |
| RCP[16] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[17] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[18] | Likely R | November 1, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[19] | Safe R | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 423 (LV) | – | 50% | 37% | 13% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 423 (LV) | – | 52% | 35% | 13% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights[21][B] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 409 (LV) | ± 7.8% | 49% | 37% | 14% |
Early voting
[edit]A study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research in July 2024 found that Mississippi is one of only three remaining states (along with Alabama and New Hampshire) to offer no early in-person voting option for the 2024 general election. The state also requires an eligible reason to vote by mail.[22]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 747,744 | 60.89% | +3.29% | ||
| Democratic | 466,668 | 38.00% | −3.06% | ||
| Independent |
|
5,387 | 0.44% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | 2,536 | 0.21% | −0.40% | ||
| Green | 1,873 | 0.15% | +0.04% | ||
| Socialism and Liberation | 1,075 | 0.09% | N/A | ||
| Constitution | 1,030 | 0.08% | N/A | ||
| American Solidarity |
|
1,007 | 0.08% | −0.01% | |
| Independent |
|
688 | 0.06% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,228,008 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 5,081 | 42.60% | 6,743 | 56.53% | 104 | 0.87% | -1,662 | -13.93% | 11,928 |
| Alcorn | 12,657 | 83.75% | 2,328 | 15.40% | 127 | 0.85% | 10,329 | 68.35% | 15,112 |
| Amite | 4,484 | 65.80% | 2,246 | 32.96% | 85 | 1.24% | 2,238 | 32.84% | 6,815 |
| Attala | 4,723 | 61.31% | 2,930 | 38.04% | 50 | 0.65% | 1,793 | 23.27% | 7,703 |
| Benton | 2,535 | 65.27% | 1,318 | 33.93% | 31 | 0.80% | 1,217 | 31.34% | 3,884 |
| Bolivar | 3,943 | 37.79% | 6,419 | 61.51% | 73 | 0.70% | -2,476 | -23.72% | 10,435 |
| Calhoun | 4,443 | 73.63% | 1,547 | 25.64% | 44 | 0.73% | 2,896 | 47.99% | 6,034 |
| Carroll | 3,730 | 71.81% | 1,431 | 27.55% | 33 | 0.64% | 2,299 | 44.26% | 5,194 |
| Chickasaw | 4,079 | 56.39% | 3,090 | 42.71% | 65 | 0.90% | 989 | 13.68% | 7,234 |
| Choctaw | 2,881 | 74.06% | 965 | 24.81% | 44 | 1.13% | 1,916 | 49.25% | 3,890 |
| Claiborne | 558 | 15.76% | 2,950 | 83.31% | 33 | 0.93% | -2,392 | -67.55% | 3,541 |
| Clarke | 5,093 | 67.27% | 2,430 | 32.10% | 48 | 0.63% | 2,663 | 35.17% | 7,571 |
| Clay | 4,017 | 44.35% | 4,960 | 54.76% | 80 | 0.89% | -943 | -10.41% | 9,057 |
| Coahoma | 2,008 | 29.57% | 4,711 | 69.38% | 71 | 1.05% | -2,703 | -39.81% | 6,790 |
| Copiah | 6,134 | 52.58% | 5,426 | 46.52% | 105 | 0.90% | 708 | 6.06% | 11,665 |
| Covington | 5,869 | 66.23% | 2,921 | 32.96% | 71 | 0.81% | 2,948 | 33.27% | 8,861 |
| DeSoto | 48,064 | 60.65% | 29,023 | 36.62% | 2,167 | 2.73% | 19,041 | 24.03% | 79,254 |
| Forrest | 16,579 | 58.24% | 11,475 | 40.31% | 412 | 1.45% | 5,104 | 17.93% | 28,466 |
| Franklin | 2,831 | 69.63% | 1,213 | 29.83% | 22 | 0.54% | 1,618 | 39.80% | 4,066 |
| George | 9,858 | 89.06% | 1,138 | 10.28% | 73 | 0.66% | 8,720 | 78.78% | 11,069 |
| Greene | 4,776 | 84.55% | 835 | 14.78% | 38 | 0.67% | 3,941 | 69.77% | 5,649 |
| Grenada | 5,651 | 57.86% | 4,060 | 41.57% | 55 | 0.57% | 1,591 | 16.29% | 9,766 |
| Hancock | 16,684 | 78.79% | 4,262 | 20.13% | 229 | 1.08% | 12,422 | 58.66% | 21,175 |
| Harrison | 48,497 | 63.88% | 26,555 | 34.98% | 871 | 1.14% | 21,942 | 28.90% | 75,923 |
| Hinds | 22,816 | 26.19% | 62,840 | 72.12% | 1,472 | 1.69% | -40,024 | -45.93% | 87,128 |
| Holmes | 1,243 | 18.47% | 5,420 | 80.53% | 67 | 1.00% | -4,177 | -62.06% | 6,730 |
| Humphreys | 990 | 28.55% | 2,443 | 70.44% | 35 | 1.01% | -1,453 | -41.89% | 3,468 |
| Issaquena | 296 | 47.59% | 287 | 46.14% | 39 | 6.27% | 9 | 1.45% | 622 |
| Itawamba | 9,523 | 89.66% | 1,027 | 9.67% | 71 | 0.67% | 8,496 | 79.99% | 10,621 |
| Jackson | 36,376 | 69.29% | 15,469 | 29.47% | 652 | 1.24% | 20,907 | 39.82% | 52,497 |
| Jasper | 4,118 | 52.19% | 3,722 | 47.17% | 50 | 0.64% | 396 | 5.02% | 7,890 |
| Jefferson | 541 | 16.40% | 2,727 | 82.66% | 31 | 0.94% | -2,186 | -66.26% | 3,299 |
| Jefferson Davis | 2,302 | 42.80% | 3,041 | 56.55% | 35 | 0.65% | -739 | -13.75% | 5,378 |
| Jones | 20,265 | 73.01% | 7,272 | 26.20% | 218 | 0.79% | 12,993 | 46.81% | 27,755 |
| Kemper | 1,691 | 41.39% | 2,381 | 58.27% | 14 | 0.34% | -690 | -16.88% | 4,086 |
| Lafayette | 14,050 | 60.02% | 8,956 | 38.26% | 403 | 1.72% | 5,094 | 21.76% | 23,409 |
| Lamar | 20,775 | 73.51% | 7,038 | 24.90% | 449 | 1.59% | 13,737 | 48.61% | 28,262 |
| Lauderdale | 16,487 | 60.16% | 10,677 | 38.96% | 243 | 0.88% | 5,810 | 21.20% | 27,407 |
| Lawrence | 4,113 | 67.95% | 1,899 | 31.37% | 41 | 0.68% | 2,214 | 36.58% | 6,053 |
| Leake | 5,143 | 61.37% | 3,182 | 37.97% | 55 | 0.66% | 1,961 | 23.40% | 8,380 |
| Lee | 24,339 | 68.87% | 10,616 | 30.04% | 383 | 1.09% | 13,723 | 38.83% | 35,338 |
| Leflore | 2,854 | 30.29% | 6,476 | 68.74% | 91 | 0.97% | -3,622 | -38.45% | 9,421 |
| Lincoln | 11,432 | 72.35% | 4,262 | 26.97% | 108 | 0.68% | 7,170 | 45.38% | 15,802 |
| Lowndes | 13,087 | 53.58% | 11,096 | 45.43% | 243 | 0.99% | 1,991 | 8.15% | 24,426 |
| Madison | 32,333 | 57.80% | 22,700 | 40.58% | 902 | 1.62% | 9,633 | 17.22% | 55,935 |
| Marion | 7,874 | 70.25% | 3,215 | 28.68% | 119 | 1.07% | 4,659 | 41.57% | 11,208 |
| Marshall | 7,977 | 53.24% | 6,888 | 45.97% | 118 | 0.79% | 1,089 | 7.27% | 14,983 |
| Monroe | 10,861 | 67.59% | 5,090 | 31.68% | 118 | 0.73% | 5,771 | 35.91% | 16,069 |
| Montgomery | 2,658 | 60.08% | 1,737 | 39.26% | 29 | 0.66% | 921 | 20.82% | 4,424 |
| Neshoba | 8,154 | 74.99% | 2,622 | 24.11% | 97 | 0.90% | 5,532 | 50.88% | 10,873 |
| Newton | 6,641 | 71.23% | 2,603 | 27.92% | 79 | 0.85% | 4,038 | 43.31% | 9,323 |
| Noxubee | 1,151 | 25.87% | 3,269 | 73.48% | 29 | 0.65% | -2,118 | -47.61% | 4,449 |
| Oktibbeha | 8,901 | 49.13% | 8,851 | 48.86% | 364 | 2.01% | 50 | 0.27% | 18,116 |
| Panola | 8,202 | 56.87% | 6,061 | 42.03% | 159 | 1.10% | 2,141 | 14.84% | 14,422 |
| Pearl River | 20,438 | 82.74% | 3,982 | 16.12% | 281 | 1.14% | 16,456 | 66.62% | 24,701 |
| Perry | 4,425 | 79.89% | 1,078 | 19.46% | 36 | 0.65% | 3,347 | 60.43% | 5,539 |
| Pike | 7,943 | 51.18% | 7,402 | 47.70% | 174 | 1.12% | 541 | 3.48% | 15,519 |
| Pontotoc | 11,740 | 83.45% | 2,214 | 15.74% | 114 | 0.81% | 9,526 | 67.71% | 14,068 |
| Prentiss | 8,581 | 82.66% | 1,727 | 16.64% | 73 | 0.70% | 6,854 | 66.02% | 10,381 |
| Quitman | 902 | 33.69% | 1,725 | 64.44% | 50 | 1.87% | -823 | -30.75% | 2,677 |
| Rankin | 50,896 | 72.83% | 18,060 | 25.84% | 931 | 1.33% | 32,836 | 46.99% | 69,887 |
| Scott | 6,098 | 61.65% | 3,729 | 37.70% | 64 | 0.65% | 2,369 | 23.95% | 9,891 |
| Sharkey | 551 | 31.20% | 1,201 | 68.01% | 14 | 0.79% | -650 | -36.81% | 1,766 |
| Simpson | 7,552 | 68.07% | 3,479 | 31.36% | 63 | 0.57% | 4,073 | 36.71% | 11,094 |
| Smith | 6,146 | 80.07% | 1,486 | 19.36% | 44 | 0.57% | 4,660 | 60.71% | 7,676 |
| Stone | 6,214 | 78.47% | 1,620 | 20.46% | 85 | 1.07% | 4,594 | 58.01% | 7,919 |
| Sunflower | 2,515 | 31.93% | 5,312 | 67.45% | 49 | 0.62% | -2,797 | -35.52% | 7,876 |
| Tallahatchie | 2,333 | 46.55% | 2,630 | 52.47% | 49 | 0.98% | -297 | -5.92% | 5,012 |
| Tate | 9,185 | 71.42% | 3,555 | 27.64% | 121 | 0.94% | 5,630 | 43.78% | 12,861 |
| Tippah | 7,984 | 83.24% | 1,547 | 16.13% | 60 | 0.63% | 6,437 | 67.11% | 9,591 |
| Tishomingo | 8,064 | 89.10% | 921 | 10.18% | 65 | 0.72% | 7,143 | 78.92% | 9,050 |
| Tunica | 799 | 29.95% | 1,837 | 68.85% | 32 | 1.20% | -1,038 | -38.90% | 2,668 |
| Union | 10,559 | 84.62% | 1,807 | 14.48% | 112 | 0.90% | 8,752 | 70.14% | 12,478 |
| Walthall | 4,114 | 63.01% | 2,355 | 36.07% | 60 | 0.92% | 1,759 | 26.94% | 6,529 |
| Warren | 9,407 | 51.41% | 8,683 | 47.45% | 208 | 1.14% | 724 | 3.96% | 18,298 |
| Washington | 4,649 | 31.97% | 9,735 | 66.95% | 156 | 1.08% | -5,086 | -34.98% | 14,540 |
| Wayne | 6,013 | 65.94% | 3,028 | 33.21% | 78 | 0.85% | 2,985 | 32.73% | 9,119 |
| Webster | 4,195 | 82.34% | 872 | 17.11% | 28 | 0.55% | 3,323 | 65.23% | 5,095 |
| Wilkinson | 1,075 | 36.68% | 1,817 | 61.99% | 39 | 1.33% | -742 | -25.31% | 2,931 |
| Winston | 4,922 | 58.71% | 3,392 | 40.46% | 70 | 0.83% | 1,530 | 18.25% | 8,384 |
| Yalobusha | 3,518 | 59.85% | 2,289 | 38.94% | 71 | 1.21% | 1,229 | 20.91% | 5,878 |
| Yazoo | 4,558 | 50.81% | 4,342 | 48.40% | 71 | 0.79% | 216 | 2.41% | 8,971 |
| Totals | 747,744 | 60.83% | 466,668 | 37.96% | 14,843 | 1.21% | 281,076 | 22.87% | 1,229,255 |
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[24]
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 67.85% | 30.82% | Trent Kelly |
| 2nd | 39.30% | 59.68% | Bennie Thompson |
| 3rd | 64.12% | 34.90% | Michael Guest |
| 4th | 70.72% | 28.19% | Mike Ezell |
Analysis
[edit]Though Mississippi has voted to the left of its bordering states in recent presidential elections, owing mainly to its large African-American minority, the state is located in the Deep South and therefore the Bible Belt. One of the most socially conservative states in the nation, it has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Southerner Jimmy Carter's narrow statewide victory in 1976, nor has it been competitive at this level since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas fell five points short of carrying the state in 1996.
Trump received 60.9% of the vote in Mississippi, winning the state by a 22.9% margin. Harris received 15% less total votes than Biden did, in large part with a decline in turnout from black majority counties on the Mississippi Delta. Collectively, these counties saw a 8% drop in turnout compared to 2020.[25]
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Mississippi
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States Senate election in Mississippi
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "Mississippi Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
- ^ "Mississippi Presidential Primary". The AP. May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ "Mississippi Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
- ^ "Ballot access for presidential candidates". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Candidate Qualifying List 1.15.2024" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. January 15, 2024. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
- ^ "Mississippi Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
- ^ "The Expansion of Voting Before Election Day, 2000–2024". The Center for Election Innovation & Research. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
- ^ "Certification of Vote for Electors for President and Vice President" (PDF). MS SOS. Retrieved December 28, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Mississippi election by Congressional District". Dave's Redistricting. Retrieved February 7, 2025.
- ^ Miller, Colin. "Redistricter". redistricter.com. Retrieved February 10, 2025.
