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2024 Thuringian state election

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2024 Thuringian state election

← 2019 1 September 2024

All 88 seats in the Landtag of Thuringia
45 seats needed for a majority
Turnout1,218,190 (73.6%)
Increase8.7 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
2019-10-27 Wahlabend Thüringen by Sandro Halank–88.jpg
Mario Voigt Porträt 2024.jpg
2024-08-19 Event, Thüringer Wahlkampftour-Start des BSW in Eisenach STP 3008 by Stepro.jpg
Leader Björn Höcke Mario Voigt Katja Wolf
Party AfD CDU BSW
Last election 22 seats, 23.4% 21 seats, 21.7% Did not exist
Seats won 32 23 15
Seat change Increase 10 Increase 2 Increase 15
Popular vote 396,704 285,141 190,448
Percentage 32.8% 23.6% 15.8%
Swing Increase 9.4 pp Increase 1.9 pp New party

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
2019-10-27 Wahlabend Thüringen by Sandro Halank–57.jpg
2020-03-04 Thüringer Landtag, erneute Wahl des Ministerpräsidenten 1DX 2752 by Stepro.jpg
Landtagsprojekt Thüringen Madeleine Henfling by Olaf Kosinsky-3.jpg
Leader Bodo Ramelow Georg Maier Madeleine Henfling
Party Left SPD Greens
Last election 29 seats, 31.0% 8 seats, 8.2% 5 seats, 5.2%
Seats won 12 6 0
Seat change Decrease 17 Decrease 2 Decrease 5
Popular vote 157,641 73,088 38,289
Percentage 13.1% 6.1% 3.2%
Swing Decrease 17.9 pp Decrease 2.1 pp Decrease 2.0 pp

  Seventh party
 
2020-02-05 Thüringer Landtag, Wahl des Ministerpräsidenten 1DX 2723 by Stepro.jpg
Leader Thomas Kemmerich
Party FDP
Last election 5 seats, 5.0%
Seats won 0
Seat change Decrease 5
Popular vote 13,582
Percentage 1.1%
Swing Decrease 3.9 pp

Results for the single-member constituencies

Government before election

Second Ramelow cabinet
LeftSPDGreen

Government after election

TBD

The 2024 Thuringian state election was held on 1 September 2024 to elect the members of the 8th Landtag of Thuringia.[1] It was held on the same day as the 2024 Saxony state election.[2]

The outgoing government was a minority government consisting of The Left, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), and The Greens, led by Minister-President Bodo Ramelow of The Left.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the largest party with 33% of the vote, its best ever performance and the first time it placed first in a state election in Germany. The incumbent governing coalition suffered dramatic losses; the Left lost more than half its support and fell to fourth place on 13%, while the SPD recorded its worst result in any postwar state election. The Greens and the Free Democratic Party lost all of their seats. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) recorded small gains and came second with 24%. The newly-founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) debuted in third place at 16%.[3]

The AfD became the first far-right party in Germany since the Nazi Party to win a plurality of seats in a state election.[4][5][6][7][8]

Election date

[edit]

According to § 18 of the Thuringian Electoral Law for the Landtag,[9] the Landtag election must take place on a Sunday or public holiday at the earliest 57 months after the beginning of the current parliamentary term on 5 February 2020 and at the latest 61 months after, i.e. at the earliest in August 2024 and at the latest December 2024.[10]

According to the Thuringian Constitution, an early election may be held if, at the request of one-third of its members, the Landtag votes with a two-thirds majority to dissolve itself. This may also occur if the Landtag does not vote confidence in a Minister-President within three weeks of a failed vote of confidence in the incumbent. The motion to dissolve the Landtag may only be voted on between eleven and thirty days after its submission. If passed, the election must then take place within 70 days.

Proposed early election

[edit]

In the aftermath of the 2020 Thuringian government crisis, The Left, CDU, SPD, and Greens came to an agreement to dissolve the Landtag and schedule a new election for 25 April 2021. At the time the four parties held a combined 63 of the 90 seats, two more than the 61 votes required for a dissolution.[11] That January, the four parties agreed to postpone the election to 26 September 2021, the same date as the upcoming federal election.[12]

The vote to dissolve the Landtag was scheduled for 19 July 2021. However, the motion was withdrawn on 16 July after four CDU and two Left members informed party leaders they would vote against it, leaving it clearly short of the required majority. Left parliamentary leader Stefan Dittes announced there would not be another effort to dissolve the Landtag, and the red-red-green minority government continued for a full term.[13][14]

Background

[edit]

Previous election

[edit]

In the previous state election held on 27 October 2019, The Left became the largest party for the first time in any German state, winning 31.0% of votes cast. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) made the largest gains, increasing its vote share by almost 13 percentage points and became the second largest party with 23.4%. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had previously been the largest party in the Landtag, lost almost 12 points and fell to third place with 21.7%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) placed fourth on 8.2%. The Greens narrowly retained their position in the legislature, winning 5.2% of votes. The Free Democratic (FDP) entered the Landtag for the first time since 2009, exceeding the 5% electoral threshold by just 73 votes.[15]

Incumbent Minister President Bodo Ramelow of The Left had led a coalition government of The Left, SPD, and Greens since 2014. The Left's gains were offset by losses for the SPD and Greens, and the coalition lost its majority.

Government crisis

[edit]

The loss of a majority for the Ramelow's red-red-green coalition led to an unclear path to a new government. The state constitution provides that a Minister-President is elected with a plurality of votes if two rounds of balloting fails to produce a majority, allowing the coalition to potentially continue as a minority government. Unexpectedly, the FDP leader Thomas Kemmerich was elected as Minister-President on this third ballot, with 45 votes to Ramelow's 44. Kemmerich was elected with the support of the FDP, CDU, and controversially, the AfD. This was the first time AfD had been involved in the election of a head of state government in Germany. The apparent cooperation of the three parties was viewed by some as breaking the cordon sanitaire around AfD which had been in place since its formation, in which all other parties sought to deny AfD government or political influence, refusing to negotiate or work with them on any level. This sparked major controversy nationwide, with many politicians expressing their outrage, including federal Chancellor and former CDU leader Angela Merkel, who described it as "unforgivable" and condemned her party's involvement.[16][17] Kemmerich announced his resignation on 6 February, just a day after taking office. He remained in office in an interim capacity.[18] In the re-ran vote a month later, Ramelow was re-elected Minister-President.[19]

Parties and lists

[edit]
Party 2019 result Con.
candidates
List
candidates
Lead candidate
The Left (LINKE) 31.0% 44 50 Bodo Ramelow
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 23.4% 42 44 Björn Höcke
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 21.7% 44 87 Mario Voigt
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 8.2% 42 47 Georg Maier
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 5.2% 20 19 Madeleine Henfling
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 5.0% 33 39 Thomas Kemmerich
Action Party for Animal Welfare (Tierschutz hier!) 1.1% 3 Daniel Riedel
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 0.4% 3 13 Martin Truckenbrodt
Pirate Party Germany (PIRATEN) 0.4% 1 9 Heidrun Jänchen
Marxist–Leninist Party (MLPD) 0.3% 3 13 Tassilo Timm
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) 6 32 Katja Wolf
Free Voters (FW) 22 15 Andreas Hummel
Values Union (WU) 4 28 Albert Weiler
Alliance Germany (BD) 15 Steffi Brönner
Family Party (FAMILIE) 13 Sven Seyfarth
Other 6

Campaign

[edit]

Lead candidates

[edit]

On 15 June 2020, the SPD elected Georg Maier as state chairman and lead candidate for the planned 2021 election. This came after previous leader Wolfgang Tiefensee resigned his position.[20]

In September 2020, former Federal Commissioner for the New States Christian Hirte was elected as state CDU chairman, succeeding Mike Mohring, who had resigned during the government crisis in February.[21] On 17 November, the state executive nominated parliamentary group leader Mario Voigt as their preferred lead candidate.[22]

After extended pressure from the federal FDP as well as other state branches, Thomas Kemmerich announced on 11 December that he was ineligible as his party's lead candidate in the planned 2021 election.[23]

Opinion polls

[edit]
LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 Thuringian State Election.

Party polling

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Linke AfD CDU SPD Grüne FDP BSW Others Lead
2024 state election 1 Sep 2024 13.1 32.8 23.6 6.1 3.2 1.1 15.8 4.3 9.2
Wahlkreisprognose 26–31 Aug 2024 900 14 31 22.5 5 2.5 17.5 7.5 8.5
Forsa 27–29 Aug 2024 1,005 14 30 22 7 4 17 6 8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–29 Aug 2024 1,859 13 29 23 6 4 18 7 6
INSA 19–23 Aug 2024 1,000 14 30 21 6 3 3 20 3 9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–22 Aug 2024 1,071 14 30 21 6 4 17 6 9
Infratest dimap 19–21 Aug 2024 1,551 13 30 23 7 3 17 7 7
Forsa 7–14 Aug 2024 1,011 13 30 21 7 4 18 7 9
INSA 5–12 Aug 2024 1,000 16 30 21 6 3 3 19 2 9
Wahlkreisprognose 4–11 Aug 2024 1.000 15.5 27.5 23 4.5 2.5 2.5 19 5.5 4.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 5–8 Aug 2024 1,015 15 30 21 7 3 19 5 9
INSA 17–24 Jun 2024 1,000 14 29 22 7 4 2 20 2 7
Infratest dimap 13–16 Jun 2024 1,172 11 28 23 7 4 21 6 5
European Parliament election 9 Jun 2024 5.7 30.7 23.2 8.2 4.2 2.0 15.0 11.0 7.5
INSA 22–29 Apr 2024 1,000 16 30 20 7 5 2 15 4 10
Infratest dimap 14–18 Mar 2024 1,182 16 29 20 9 5 15 6 9
INSA 11–18 Mar 2024 1,000 18 31 21 6 5 2 13 4 10
INSA 8–15 Jan 2024 1,000 15 31 20 6 5 3 17 3 11
Forsa 6–10 Jan 2024 1,253 17 36 20 9 5 3 4 6 16
Wahlkreisprognose 17–24 Dec 2023 987 20.5 27.5 12.5 6 2.5 3 22.5 5.5 5
27 36.5 16 7 3 4 6.5 9.5
INSA 30 Oct7 Nov 2023 1,000 20 34 22 9 4 4 7 12
INSA 7–13 Sep 2023 1,000 22 32 21 10 6 4 5 10
INSA 3–10 Jul 2023 1,000 22 32 20 10 5 4 7 10
18 22 16 9 5 3 25 2 3
Infratest dimap 28 Jun3 Jul 2023 1,193 20 34 21 10 5 4 6 13
Wahlkreisprognose 16–28 May 2023 904 25 30 17.5 10 4 6 7.5 5
INSA 17–24 Apr 2023 1,000 22 28 21 11 6 5 7 6
INSA 20–27 Jan 2023 1,000 25 26 22 10 6 5 6 1
Wahlkreisprognose 5–11 Dec 2022 1,016 27 30 15 10 5 6 7 3
INSA 1–8 Nov 2022 1,108 23 25 21 11 7 5 8 2
Wahlkreisprognose 25–31 Oct 2022 1,008 24 28 17.5 12 6 6 6.5 4
INSA 7–15 Sep 2022 1,081 23 26 20 11 8 5 7 3
Wahlkreisprognose 29 Aug–6 Sep 2022 1,000 22 28 20.5 11 5.5 5 8 6
Infratest dimap 28 Jul–2 Aug 2022 1,172 22 25 22 11 7 5 8 3
INSA 4–11 Jul 2022 1,019 24 24 20 13 8 5 6 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 7–15 Jun 2022 1,031 24 26 16 14 7 5 8 2
Wahlkreisprognose 23–30 May 2022 1,000 24 23 18 16 7 4 8 1
Wahlkreisprognose 6–14 Apr 2022 994 20 21 19 20 5 8 7 1
INSA 4–11 Apr 2022 1,027 24 22 20 16 7 5 6 2
INSA 1 Mar 2022 1,000 25 23 19 16 6 6 5 2
Infratest dimap 17–22 Feb 2022 1,158 23 24 19 15 5 7 7 1
INSA 24–30 Nov 2021 1,000 24 23 15 18 7 7 6 1
INSA 29 Sep–4 Oct 2021 1,074 20 24 15 21 7 8 5 3
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 11.4 24.0 16.9 23.4 6.6 9.0 8.7 0.6
Infratest dimap 20–23 Jul 2021 1,162 27 22 21 11 6 6 7 5
INSA 9–15 Jul 2021 1,006 27 22 21 9 7 8 6 5
Wahlkreisprognose 17–24 Jun 2021 28 22 21 10.5 6.5 7 5 6
INSA 7–14 Jun 2021 1,006 26 23 22 9 6 7 7 3
Wahlkreisprognose 18 May 2021 26 23 16 10.5 10.5 8 6 3
INSA 8–16 Mar 2021 1,036 30 23 19 9 8 6 5 7
Infratest dimap 25 Feb–1 Mar 2021 1,000 29 23 22 10 5 6 6 6
INSA 27 Jan–2 Feb 2021 1,000 31 23 22 7 8 6 3 8
Wahlkreisprognose 23–31 Jan 2021 29 22.5 25 10 6 5 2.5 4
Wahlkreisprognose 10–17 Nov 2020 33.5 22.5 24 8 5 3.5 3.5 9.5
INSA 2–5 Nov 2020 1,032 33 22 22 9 6 5 3 11
INSA 5–12 Oct 2020 1,004 33 22 22 8 7 4 4 11
INSA 24 Aug–2 Sep 2020 1,012 33 22 22 9 5 4 5 11
Wahlkreisprognose 9–18 Aug 2020 34 20.5 20 10 5.5 5 5 13.5
Infratest dimap 30 Jul–4 Aug 2020 1,000 32 20 24 10 6 4 4 8
Wahlkreisprognose 17–22 Jun 2020 35.5 21 19 8 6 6 4.5 14.5
INSA 15–22 Jun 2020 1,016 35 22 22 8 6 3 3 13
INSA 14–19 May 2020 1,010 34 22 21 8 7 5 3 12
Wahlkreisprognose 2–10 May 2020 35 25 17.5 8 3.5 8 3 10
Wahlkreisprognose 14–19 Apr 2020 34 26 20.5 8 4 4 3.5 8
INSA 25–31 Mar 2020 1,018 37 23 18 7 7 4 4 14
INSA 5–9 Mar 2020 1,034 38 25 15 8 6 4 4 13
Wahlkreisprognose 13 Feb 2020 41 25.5 10 10.5 5 4 4 15.5
INSA 10–13 Feb 2020 1,006 40 25 14 7 6 4 4 15
Infratest dimap 7–10 Feb 2020 1,007 39 24 13 10 5 4 5 15
Forsa 6 Feb 2020 1,003 37 24 12 9 7 4 7 13
INSA 5–6 Feb 2020 1,006 34 23 19 6 6 7 5 11
Infratest dimap 21–25 Jan 2020 1,000 32 24 19 8 6 6 5 8
2019 state election 27 Oct 2019 31.0 23.4 21.7 8.2 5.2 5.0 4.9 7.6

Hypothetical scenarios

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Ramelow list AfD CDU SPD Grüne FDP BSW Others Lead
Wahlkreisprognose 17–24 Dec 2023 987 35[a] 37 15 [a] 4.5 3.5 [a] 5 2
25.5[b] 33 14.5 [b] [b] 3.5 17.5 6 7.5

Minister President polling

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
None/
Unsure
Lead
Ramelow
Linke
Höcke
AfD
Mohring
CDU
Voigt
CDU
Maier
SPD
Siegesmund
Grüne
Stengele
Grüne
Henfling
Grüne
Kemmerich
FDP
Kindervater
Independent
Wagenknecht
BSW
INSA 5–12 Aug 2024 1,000 18 18 11 4 1 1 3 29 15 11
26 20 54 6
Wahlkreisprognose 17–24 Dec 2023 987 40 30 11 4 6 9 10
33 26 10 4 5 13 9 7
50 27 23 23
45 24 31 21
49 13 38 36
20 25 55 5
28 30 42 2
45 15 40 30
INSA 30 Oct7 Nov 2023 1,000 34 18 12 4 31 16
INSA 17–24 Apr 2023 1,000 35 16 12 6 31 19
Wahlkreisprognose 5–11 Dec 2022 1,016 41 31 8 8 12 10
Wahlkreisprognose 25–31 Oct 2022 1,008 35 26 11 14 14 9
Wahlkreisprognose 29 Aug–6 Sep 2022 1,000 32 26 14 14 14 6
INSA 4–11 Jul 2022 1,019 38 11 4 3 44 27
Wahlkreisprognose 23–30 May 2022 1,000 40 18 15 16 11 22
Wahlkreisprognose 6–14 Apr 2022 994 38 16 13 18 15 20
INSA 4–11 Apr 2022 1,027 37 9 5 49 28
INSA 24 Aug–2 Sep 2020 1,012 42 9 7 3 2 5 32 33
INSA 5–9 Mar 2020 1,034 56 16 21 40
Forsa 6 Feb 2020 1,003 64 9 6 3 18 55
Infratest dimap 21–25 Jan 2020 1,000 60 9 19 10 41

Preferred coalition

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Assessment Linke
SPD
BSW
Linke
SPD
Grüne
Linke
SPD
Linke
CDU
BSW
Linke
CDU
SPD
Linke
CDU
Linke
CDU
SPD
FDP
Linke
AfD
CDU
SPD
Grüne
CDU
SPD
Grüne
FDP
CDU
SPD
FDP
AfD
BSW
AfD
CDU
FDP
AfD
CDU
Wahlkreisprognose 17–24 Dec 2023 987 Positive 33 32 32 33 31 27 17 19 28 32 29 41
Infratest dimap 28 Jun–3 Jul 2023 1,193 Positive 27 26 21 13 27 31
Negative 67 67 73 81 67 63
Infratest dimap 30 Jul–4 Aug 2020 1,000 Positive 45 43 32 36 21 19
Negative 52 52 63 60 76 78
Infratest dimap 21–25 Jan 2020 1,000 Positive 43 33 19
Negative 54 64 79

Results

[edit]
PartyParty-listConstituencyTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Alternative for Germany (AfD)396,70432.843408,01134.332932+10
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)285,14123.6112397,92733.481123+2
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW)190,44815.771528,4782.40015+15
The Left (Die Linke)157,64113.058180,20715.16412–17
Social Democratic Party (SPD)73,0886.05692,5107.7806–2
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)38,2893.17019,0921.6100–5
Free Voters (FW)15,3711.27033,4052.8100
Free Democratic Party (FDP)13,5821.12018,7061.5700–5
Action Party for Animal Welfare (APfT)12,1131.0000
Values Union (WU)6,7800.5604,1920.3500
Family Party (Familie)5,7220.4700
Bündnis Deutschland (BD)5,5080.4600
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten)3,7180.3104490.0400
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)2,3890.2002,1960.1800
Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD)1,3420.1106170.0500
Other02,6960.2300
Total1,207,836100.00441,188,486100.004488–2
Valid votes1,207,83699.151,188,48697.56
Invalid/blank votes10,3540.8529,7042.44
Total votes1,218,190100.001,218,190100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,655,34373.591,655,34373.59
Source: Results

Members

[edit]
Constituency Member Party Votes
001 Eichsfeld I König, Thadäus CDU 54.3%
002 Eichsfeld II Tasch, Christina CDU 47.1%
003 Nordhausen I Prophet, Jörg AfD 40.3%
004 Nordhausen II Düben-Schaumann, Kerstin AfD 39.8%
005 Wartburgkreis I Krell, Uwe AfD 38.5%
006 Wartburgkreis II – Eisenach Jary, Ulrike CDU 42.4%
007 Wartburgkreis III Malsch, Marcus CDU 46.3%
008 Unstrut-Hainich-Kreis I Urbach, Jonas CDU 37.1%
009 Unstrut-Hainich-Kreis II Möller, Stefan AfD 39.7%
010 Kyffhäuserkreis I – Eichsfeld III Schard, Stefan CDU 42.0%
011 Kyffhäuserkreis II Cotta, Jens AfD 46.5%
012 Schmalkalden-Meiningen I Rottstedt, Vivien AfD 37.4%
013 Schmalkalden-Meiningen II Abicht, Jan AfD 39.8%
014 Gotha I Kramer, Marcel AfD 37.3%
015 Gotha II Steinbrück, Stephan AfD 34.7%
016 Sömmerda I – Gotha III Haseloff, Daniel AfD 38.6%
017 Sömmerda II Czuppon, Torsten AfD 42.8%
018 Hildburghausen I – Schmalkalden-Meiningen III Hoffmann, Nadine AfD 41.6%
019 Sonneberg I Treutler, Jürgen AfD 42.6%
020 Hildburghausen II – Sonneberg II Berger, Melanie AfD 41.6%
021 Suhl – Schmalkalden-Meiningen IV Luhn, Thomas AfD 32.8%
022 Ilm-Kreis I Bühl, Andreas CDU 39.6%
023 Ilm-Kreis II Kießling, Olaf AfD 40.2%
024 Erfurt I Schlösser, Sascha AfD 35.7%
025 Erfurt II Waßmann, Niklas CDU 33.7%
026 Erfurt III Ramelow, Bodo DIE LINKE 42.4%
027 Erfurt IV Erfurth, Marek AfD 26.7%
028 Saalfeld-Rudolstadt I Benninghaus, Thomas AfD 37.5%
029 Saalfeld-Rudolstadt II Häußer, Denis AfD 38.6%
030 Weimarer Land I – Saalfeld-Rudolstadt III Nauer, Brunhilde Ursula Margit AfD 38.2%
031 Weimar I – Weimarer Land II Gerhardt, Peter AfD 38.3%
032 Weimar II Große-Röthig, Ulrike DIE LINKE 33.1%
033 Saale-Orla-Kreis I Thrum, Uwe AfD 47.4%
034 Saale-Orla-Kreis II Mühlmann, Ringo AfD 44.6%
035 Saale-Holzland-Kreis I Tiesler, Stephan CDU 39.8%
036 Saale-Holzland-Kreis II Muhsal, Wiebke AfD 38.9%
037 Jena I Thomas, Jens DIE LINKE 33.5%
038 Jena II Güngör, Lena Saniye DIE LINKE 25.1%
039 Greiz I Schweinsburg, Martina CDU 46.7%
040 Greiz II Tischner, Christian CDU 43.0%
041 Gera I Laudenbach, Dieter Michael AfD 36.9%
042 Gera II Dr. Lauerwald, Wolfgang AfD 43.6%
043 Altenburger Land I Hoffmann, Thomas AfD 42.4%
044 Altenburger Land II Braga, Torben AfD 42.8%
List Müller, Anja DIE LINKE
Schaft, Christian
König-Preuss, Katharina
Schubert, Andreas
Mitteldorf, Katja
Prof. Dr. Hoff, Benjamin Immanuel
Stark, Linda
Hande, Ronald
Höcke, Björn AfD
Dr. Dietrich, Jens
Jankowski, Denny
Voigt, Mario CDU
Meißner, Beate
Zippel, Christoph
Worm, Henry
Rosin, Marion
Gerbothe, Carolin
Geibert, Lennart
Dr. Weißkopf, Wolfgang
Heber, Claudia
Kowalleck, Maik
Croll, Jane
Henkel, Martin
Maier, Georg SPD
Dr. Klisch, Cornelia
Hey, Matthias
Merz, Janine
Liebscher, Lutz
Schenk, Katharina
Wolf, Katja BSW
Schütz, Steffen
Quasebarth, Steffen
Hupach, Sigrid
Dr. Augsten, Frank
Hoffmeister, Dirk
Küntzel, Sven
Kummer, Tilo
Kästner, Alexander
Herzog, Matthias
Behrendt, Nina
Wirsing, Anke
Hutschenreuther, Ralph
Kobelt, Roberto
Dr. Wogawa, Stefan

Electorate

[edit]
Demographic Linke AfD CDU SPD Grüne FDP BSW Other
Total vote 13.1% 32.8% 23.6% 6.1% 3.2% 1.1% 15.8% 4.3%
Sex
Men 12% 38% 22% 6% 3% 1% 14% 4%
Women 14% 27% 24% 6% 4% 1% 18% 6%
Age
16–24 years old 16% 38% 13% 7% 5% 1% 12% 8%
25–34 years old 14% 36% 16% 7% 6% 1% 13% 7%
35–44 years old 10% 36% 21% 7% 5% 2% 13% 6%
45–59 years old 10% 37% 24% 5% 3% 1% 15% 5%
60–69 years old 13% 32% 26% 5% 1% 1% 19% 3%
70 and older 20% 19% 31% 7% 1% 1% 19% 2%
Employment status
Self-employed 6% 30% 32% 4% 5% 3% 15% 5%
Employees 14% 33% 23% 6% 4% 1% 15% 4%
Workers 8% 49% 15% 4% 2% 1% 16% 5%
Pensioners 16% 23% 30% 7% 1% 1% 19% 3%
Education
Simple education 11% 47% 21% 4% 1% 0% 12% 4%
Medium education 11% 41% 22% 4% 1% 1% 17% 3%
High education 16% 21% 26% 10% 6% 2% 15% 4%
Source: Infratest dimap[24]

Analysis and aftermath

[edit]

This was the first time the AfD has won the plurality of seats in a state election. With over one-third of seats, the AfD has a Sperrminorität ("blocking minority"), meaning that certain parliamentary actions requiring a two-thirds majority, such as the appointment of judges, amendments to the state constitution, and an early dissolution of parliament, cannot take place without its support even if it is not in government.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on other political parties to prevent the AfD from governing by upholding a "firewall" against them.[25] He described the election results as "bitter" and "worrying" and urged other parties to form stable governments without involving "right-wing extremists."[25] In response, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel stated that voters in Thuringia and Saxony had given her party a "clear mandate to govern" and that "firewalls are undemocratic."[25]

Though a CDU-AfD coalition would have a majority, all other parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the party and its Thuringian leader, Björn Höcke, due to their extremist tendencies. The State Office for Protection of the Constitution classifies the Thuringian AfD as a right-wing extremist organisation, and Höcke has been found guilty of using the forbidden Nazi slogan "Everything for Germany".[3] The CDU has historically declined to collaborate with Die Linke (The Left), though a coalition with BSW, also a radical leftist party, was also considered unappealing by party members.[25]

In the aftermath to the elections in both Thuringia and Saxony, Sahra Wagenknecht, leader of the BSW, stated her preferences to go into a coalition with either the CDU and/or the SPD in an interview with ARD.[26]

Landtag opening session controversy

[edit]

The office of President of the Landtag, the body's presiding officer, is traditionally reserved for the largest party in parliament. However, the four other parties all rejected the possibility of the AfD holding this position given its classification as an extremist party.[27] In addition, AfD made known its candidate for President would be its MdL Wiebke Muhsal, who was convicted and fined for defrauding the Landtag administration in 2015. The other parties saw this as a deliberate provocation.[28]

To avoid a potential scenario where a President of the Landtag is elected with AfD votes, or that of a deadlock with AfD candidates repeatedly being voted down, CDU and BSW jointly proposed changing the election procedure at the first sitting on 26 September. The election requires a simple majority, and under the rule then in effect the largest party had the right of nomination (Vorschlagsrecht). If that nominee failed to be elected twice, the rule stated that "new candidates may be proposed for further ballots" but was unclear who may do this; it was the opinion of AfD that they alone still had the right of nomination, and that the rules could not be changed without a duly elected President. The new proposal was to allow all parties to nominate candidates from the outset. CDU put forward as a consensus candidate its MdL Thadäus König, who received the highest share of constituency votes of any candidate in this election. The other parties indicated they would support him.[29]

Father of the house Jürgen Treutler of AfD, who was the presiding officer of the Landtag until the election of a President, declined to allow a vote on the rule change, ignored other motions and requests to speak, and ultimately prevented any other business from taking place by refusing to recognize a quorum. The other parties, in particular CDU parliamentary leader Andreas Bühl, accused Treutler of not acting in a non-partisan manner, with Bühl angrily condemning what he called "a seizure of power" during the contentious session. The sitting was abandoned and CDU, supported by other parties, filed an emergency complaint with the Thuringian Constitutional Court in response.[30][31] Treutler then filed a countercomplaint on 27 September, asking the court to dismiss the CDU complaint as inadmissible.[32]

In the late hours of 27 September, the court ruled unanimously in favor of CDU's complaint. It held that there was no exclusive right for the largest parliamentary group to propose candidates for the office of President of the Landtag, and thus that amending the voting procedure was permissible. The court also confirmed that members have the right to debate and amend the rules before the election of a President of the Landtag.[33][34][35] Treutler was thus required to put the motion to a vote at the reconstituted sitting on 28 September, which passed. The CDU candidate König was then elected President with 54 votes to 32 for Muhsal.[28]

Government formation

[edit]

The day after the election, the CDU executive voted unanimously to seek exploratory talks with the BSW and SPD.[36] BSW leader Katja Wolf stated that federal leader Sahra Wagenknecht would be attending these initial discussions to "stand up for war and peace issues," but would not be involved in further negotiations. Bodo Ramelow and The Left called for the CDU to "act responsibly and find a majority among democratic parties". They also denied rumours that Left party deputies could defect to the BSW to provide the prospective government with a parliamentary majority.[27]

In a speech on 20 September, federal CDU leader Friedrich Merz described a coalition including BSW in either Thuringia or Saxony as "very, very, very unlikely".[37]

Exploratory talks for a CDU-BSW-SPD coalition, the so-called "blackberry coalition", began on 30 September. This proposed minority government is still one seat short of a majority, requiring support or abstentions from The Left to conduct business.[38] This is akin to the previous Second Ramelow cabinet, which took the form of a Left-SPD-Green minority government that was tolerated by CDU without any formal agreement. Ramelow stated he would not object to Mario Voigt's election as Minister-President.[39]

On 17 October, Die Welt reported that exploratory talks had concluded and a preliminary distribution of ministries had taken place. There was still no conclusion as to how to achieve a majority.[40] CDU and SPD confirmed the talks had finished, but described the material leaked to Die Welt as "fake".[41]

Representing the Left, Ramelow told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that the twelve Left MdLs would vote en bloc on any issue and he would not individually be a "constant majority-maker" for the coalition.[42]

On 25 October, amid reports that talks were stalling, Wagenknecht was heavily criticized for personally vetoing compromise foreign policy language that was to be inserted into the preamble of a report on the exploratory talks.[43] In an interview with ARD, Merz accused Wagenknecht of "wanting to run a federal election campaign where she constantly says no" instead of attempting to lead, and that his party would not compromise on NATO membership and aid to Ukraine.[44] Though BSW state leaders expressed their desire to continue, SPD state leader Maier told MDR that he had little hope that coalition talks could succeed.[43] Despite this, after a pause in talks over the following weekend, the party leaders announced they had reached a consensus on foreign policy issues and decided to begin formal coalition negotiations. They are expected to start on 29 October and last for two weeks.[45]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Linke, SPD and BSW within hypothetical Bodo Ramelow list.
  2. ^ a b c Linke, SPD and Grüne within hypothetical Bodo Ramelow list.

References

[edit]
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