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Electorate opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election

Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling before the 2025 federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the Australian House of Representatives.

New South Wales

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Cook

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND OTH LIB ALP GRN
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 57% 25% 6% — 12% 64% 36% —
13 April 2024 By-election 62.7% — 16.4% 5.7% 15.2% 71.3% — 28.7%
28 March 2024 uComms[a] 914 ± 3.6% 53% — 17% 12% 10% 65% — 35%
21 May 2022 Election 55.3% 25.0% 9.9% — 9.8% 62.4% 37.6% —

Gilmore

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 44% 29% 9% — — 18% 44% 56%
21 May 2022 Election 42.0% 36.0% 10.2% 4.0% 4.2% 3.6% 50.2% 49.8%

Macarthur

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP OTH ALP LIB
29 October - 20 November 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[3] — — 41% 32% 12% — 15% 48% 52%
21 May 2022 Election 30.5% 45.9% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 58.5% 41.5%

Mackellar

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2cp vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTH UND IND LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 43% — 11% 7% 39% — 53% 47%
5 February 2024 uComms[a] 602 ±3.85% 35.3% 30.4% 13.2% 5.8% 4.5% 10.8% 54.0% 46.0%
21 May 2022 Election 41.4% 38.1% 8.6% 6.1% 6.1% — 52.5% 47.5%

Paterson

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP OTH ALP LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 32% 42% 9% — 17% 46% 54%
21 May 2022 Election 40.7% 36.7% 7.6% 8.2% 6.9% 53.3% 46.7%

Wentworth

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2cp vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTH UND IND LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 40% — 17% 9% 33% — 55% 45%
5 February 2024 uComms[a] 643 ±3.85% 35.5% 32.1% 13.1% 10.0% 2.9% 6.3% 57.0% 43.0%
21 May 2022 Election 40.5% 35.8% 10.7% 8.3% 4.6% — 54.2% 45.8%

Victoria

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Aston

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND OTH LIB ALP
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 47% 30% 11% — 11% 56% 44%
1 April 2023 By-election 39.1% 40.9% 10.1% 7.0% 2.9% 46.4% 53.6%
21 May 2022 Election 43.1% 32.6% 12.1% — 12.3% 52.8% 47.2%

Dunkley

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN LP OTH ALP LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 38% 36% 9% — 18% 53% 47%
2 March 2024 By-election 41.1% 39.2% 6.4% 2.5% 10.8% 52.7% 47.3%
15–22 February 2024 YouGov[4] 394 ± 6.1% 33% 40% 9% 3% 15% 49% 51%
5–6 February 2024 uComms[a] 626 ± 3.9% 40.1% 39.3% 8.2% 1.6% 10.8% 52.0% 48.0%
21 May 2022 Election 40.2% 32.5% 10.3% 2.5% 16.9% 56.3% 43.7%

Goldstein

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTH IND LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 49% — 17% 6% 29% 47% 53%
21 May 2022 Election 40.4% 34.5% 11.0% 7.8% 6.3% 52.9% 47.1%

Jagajaga

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
L/NP ALP GRN IND OTH L/NP ALP
29 Oct 2024 - 20 Nov 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group — ±4.0% 37% 41% 12% — 10% 44% 56%
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — ±3.5% 35% 40% 16% — 9% 41% 59%
Feb 2024 - May 2024 RedBridge Group — ±3.3% 33% 39% 18% — 10% 39% 61%
21 May 2022 2022 Federal Election 29.2% 40.9% 16.7% 3.1% 10.1% 37.6% 62.4%

Kooyong

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2cp vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTH UND IND LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 43% — 12% 4% 41% — 53% 47%
5 February 2024 uComms[a] 647 ±3.9% 36.8% 32.5% 12.1% 6.8% 2.0% 9.7% 56.0% 44.0%
24–25 July 2023 uComms[a] 821 ±3.4% 40.3% 31.6% 12.4% 5.6% 2.9% 7.2% 51.0% 49.0%
21 May 2022 Election 42.7% 40.3% 6.9% 6.3% 3.8% — 52.9% 47.1%

Western Australia

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Curtin

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTH IND LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 46% — 23% 8% 22% 47% 53%
21 May 2022 Election 41.3% 29.5% 14.0% 10.4% 4.9% 51.3% 48.7%

Tasmania

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Lyons

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN JLN ONP OTH ALP LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 41% 25% 9% — — 24% 46% 54%
21 May 2022 Election 37.2% 29.0% 11.4% 10.9% 5.4% 6.1% 50.9% 49.1%

Northern Territory

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Lingiari

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP CLP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[1][2] — — 30% 36% 12% — — 22% 47% 53%
21 May 2022 Election 36.6% 34.7% 11.0% 5.4% 3.0% 9.4% 51.0% 49.0%

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f Sponsored by the Australia Institute

References

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 18 December 2024.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Labor facing minority with Liberals competitive in teal seats: poll". Australian Financial Review. 8 September 2024. Retrieved 18 December 2024.
  3. ^ "Australia's political landscape: Spring 2024". Accent Research. Retrieved 6 January 2025.
  4. ^ "Dunkley seat poll shows Liberals lead 51-49 in upcoming by-election | YouGov". au.yougov.com. Archived from the original on 27 February 2024. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
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