The next election to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin is scheduled for 2026.
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Background
editIn the 2023 Berlin repeat state election With 28% of votes, the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) grew by over ten percentage points and emerged as the largest party by a wide margin, the first time it had done so since 1999. All three governing parties declined; the SPD suffered its worst result in over a century with 18.4%, and only barely remained ahead of the Greens by a margin of 53 votes. The Left also slipped to 12%. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) recorded a small upswing to 9%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell to 4.6% and lost all their seats. Overall, the incumbent government retained a reduced majority. The CDU claimed a mandate to govern given its first-place result, while mayor Franziska Giffey committed to remaining in government. The Left called for a renewal of the outgoing coalition.[1]
After various talks between parties, the SPD and CDU voted at the beginning of March to begin negotiations for a grand coalition. CDU leader Kai Wegner was approved as mayor on 27 April after three rounds of voting.[2][3]
Electoral system
editThe Abgeordnetenhaus is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 78 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 52 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in each of Berlin's twelve boroughs. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Abgeordnetenhaus is 130 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Abgeordnetenhaus; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Abgeordnetenhaus. However, parties which win at least one single-member constituency are exempt from the threshold and will be allocated seats proportionally, even if they fall below 5%.[4]
Opinion polls
edit| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
CDU | SPD | Grüne | Linke | AfD | FDP | BSW | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 14–18 Nov 2024 | 1,179 | 27 | 12 | 20 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| INSA | 1–7 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 26 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 8 |
| European Parliament election | 9 Jun 2024 | – | 17.6 | 13.2 | 19.6 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 17.7 | 2.0 |
| Infratest dimap | 18–22 Apr 2024 | 1,174 | 27 | 15 | 20 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| INSA | 22–29 Jan 2024 | 1,000 | 29 | 16 | 17 | 10 | 13 | 4 | – | 11 | 12 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–16 Oct 2023 | 1,159 | 29 | 15 | 19 | 10 | 15 | 4 | – | 8 | 10 |
| INSA | 18–26 Sep 2023 | 1,000 | 26 | 17 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 5 | – | 10 | 8 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25 Jul – 2 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 24.5 | 16 | 16.5 | 13.5 | 16 | 4 | – | 9.5 | 8 |
| INSA | 27 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 30 | 18 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 5 | – | 9 | 12 |
| 2023 state election | 12 Feb 2023 | N/A | 28.2 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.6 | – | 9.0 | 9.8 |
West Berlin
edit| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
CDU | SPD | Grüne | Linke | AfD | FDP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 12–16 Oct 2023 | – | 31 | 17 | 20 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| 2023 state election | 12 Feb 2023 | – | 31.1 | 19.9 | 19.8 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 11.2 |
East Berlin
edit| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
CDU | Linke | SPD | Grüne | AfD | FDP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 12–16 Oct 2023 | – | 26 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 8 |
| 2023 state election | 12 Feb 2023 | – | 24.3 | 16.6 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 3.7 | 10.4 | 0.2 |
References
edit- ^ "Berlin: Conservatives projected to win repeated vote". Deutsche Welle. 13 February 2023.
- ^ "CDU board votes for coalition negotiations with SPD". Rundfunk Berlin-Brandenburg (in German). 2 March 2023.
- ^ "Ex-insurance salesman elected unlikely mayor of Berlin". France 24. 27 April 2023. Retrieved 27 April 2023.
- ^ "Elections". Berlin.de (in German). 19 January 2022. Retrieved 30 October 2022.