2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina

2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina
	County results DeMint: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%; Tenenbaum: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
U.S. senator before election; Fritz Hollings; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Jim DeMint; Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 2, 2004. Longtime incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Fritz Hollings retired, and Republican U.S. Representative Jim DeMint won the open seat. DeMint was the first Republican to hold this Senate seat since 1879. This marked the first time since Reconstruction that Republicans held both Senate seats in South Carolina simultaneously.

Democratic primary

South Carolina's status as a Republican stronghold led observers to speculate that Hollings retiring would lead to his seat being picked up by a Republican.^[1] Inez Tenenbaum, the South Carolina Superintendent of Education, would win the primary by a wide margin following the decision of many state Democrats to forgo a candidacy.

Candidates

Nominee

Inez Tenenbaum, South Carolina Superintendent of Education

Eliminated in primary

Ben Frasier, former congressional aide

Withdrew

Bob Coble, mayor of Columbia^[2] (endorsed Tenenbaum)

Declined to run

Jim Clyburn, U.S. Representative^[3]
Hayne Hipp, businessman^[4]^[3]
Fritz Hollings, incumbent U.S. Senator (retired)
Darla Moore, investor^[5]
Thomas L. Moore, state senator^[3]
Alex Sanders, former president of the College of Charleston; nominee for U.S. Senate in 2002^[3]
James E. Smith Jr., state representative^[6]
John Spratt, U.S. Representative^[3]

Results

2004 South Carolina U.S. Senate Democratic primary election^[7]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Inez Tenenbaum	126,720	75.5%
	Democratic	Ben Frasier	41,070	24.5%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Jim DeMint, U.S. Representative

Defeated in primary

David Beasley, former governor
Charlie Condon, State Attorney General
Orly Benny Davis, businesswoman^[8]
Mark McBride, Mayor of Myrtle Beach^[9]
Thomas Ravenel, businessman

Campaign

The Senate election two years earlier in 2002 did not have a primary election because the South Carolina Republicans were more preoccupied with the gubernatorial contest, despite having the first open senate seat in 40 years. The retirement of Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings gave the Republicans an opportunity to pick up the seat and with no other interesting positions up for election in 2004, a crowded field developed in the Republican primary. Furthermore, the Republicans were motivated by having President Bush at the top of the ticket enabling them to ride his coattails to victory.

Former Governor David Beasley, from the Pee Dee, entered the race and quickly emerged as the frontrunner because of his support from the evangelical voters. However, during his term as governor from 1995 to 1999 he had greatly angered the electorate by proposing to remove the Confederate Naval Jack from the dome of the statehouse and by being against the adoption of a state lottery to provide for college scholarships. Both positions led to the loss of his re-election in 1998 and the issues continued to trouble him in the Senate race.

The battle for second place in the primary was between Upstate congressman, Jim DeMint, and Charleston developer Thomas Ravenel. DeMint was able to squeak out a second-place finish because Charlie Condon, a former Attorney General of South Carolina, split the Lowcountry vote with Ravenel thus providing DeMint the margin he needed. In addition, while many voters were attracted to the Ravenel campaign and felt that he had a future in politics, they believed that he should set his sights on a less high-profile office first before trying to become senator. Resigned to defeat, Ravenel endorsed DeMint in the runoff election.

In the runoff election on June 22, 2004, DeMint scored a surprising victory over Beasley. Ravenel's endorsement of DeMint proved crucial as the Lowcountry counties heavily went for the Representative from the Upstate. Also, Beasley had burnt too many bridges while governor and was unable to increase his share of the vote in the runoff.

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[10]	Margin of error	Jim DeMint	David Beasley	Thomas Ravenel	Charlie Condon	Mark McBride	Bob Peeler	Undecided
SurveyUSA^[11]	June 18–20, 2004	499 (LV)	± 4.5%	54%	44%					2%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[12]	June 10–14, 2004	700 (LV)		46%	42%					12%
SurveyUSA^[13]	June 12–14, 2004	527 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	48%					5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[12]	June 7, 2004			42%	48%					10%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)^[14]^[15]	June 9–10, 2004	300 (LV)	± 5.8%	38%	47%					15%
SurveyUSA^[16]	June 4–6, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	20%	38%	23%	12%			7%
SurveyUSA^[17]	May 22–24, 2004	421 (LV)	± 4.9%	21%	43%	17%	16%			3%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)^[18]	May 11, 2004	467 (LV)	± 4.7%	18%	40%	11%	9%			22%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[12]	May 2004			33%	54%					10%
SurveyUSA^[19]^[20]	April 26–28, 2004	427 (LV)	± 4.9%	27%	38%		19%			16%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)^[21]	February 4–5, 2004	716 (LV)	± 3.8%	13%	41%	9%	15%	2%		20%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[22]	January 2004	550 (LV)	± 3.4%	16%	37%	10%	19%	2%		16%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)^[23]^[24]	October 17–20, 2003		± 3.8%	8%	24%		8%		16%	44%
				24%	44%					32%
				22%			33%			45%
					44%		28%			28%
Basswood Research (R)^[25]	April 29, 2003	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	19%		4%	27%	4%		46%

Results

Republican Primary
Candidate	Votes	%
David Beasley	107,847	36.6%
Jim DeMint	77,567	26.3%
Thomas Ravenel	73,167	24.8%
Charlie Condon	27,694	9.4%
Mark McBride	6,479	2.2%
Orly Benny Davis	1,915	0.7%

Republican Primary Runoff
Candidate	Votes	%	±%
Jim DeMint	154,644	59.2%	+32.9%
David Beasley	106,480	40.8%	+4.2%

General election

Candidates

Major

Jim DeMint (R), U.S. Representative
Inez Tenenbaum (D), South Carolina Superintendent of Education

Minor

Tee Ferguson (United Citizens)
Efia Nwangaza (Green)
Rebekah E. Sutherland (Libertarian)
Patrick Tyndall (Constitution)

DeMint entered the general election campaign severely weakened from the primary fight, having spent most of his campaign funds. He stressed to the voters that he would follow conservative principles and provide an important Republican vote in the closely divided Senate. Democrats fared poorly in statewide elections in South Carolina, so Tenenbaum tried to make the race about issues rather than party identification.

Tenenbaum attacked DeMint's support of the FairTax proposal because it would increase the sales tax by 23%. The election victory by DeMint merely cemented South Carolina's shift to the Republican column as the best candidate the Democrats could offer was soundly defeated by the typical 10-point margin.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[26]	Likely R (flip)	November 1, 2004

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[10]	Margin of error	Jim DeMint (R)	Inez Tenenbaum (D)	Undecided
SurveyUSA^[27]	October 29–31, 2004	635 (LV)	± 4%	52%	41%	7%
McLaughlin & Associates^[28]	October 26–28, 2004	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	40%	12%
SurveyUSA^[29]	October 22–24, 2004	564 (LV)	± 4.2%	52%	39%	9%
Mason-Dixon^[30]	October 19–20, 2004	625 (LV)	± 4%	47%	43%	10%
SurveyUSA^[31]	October 10–12, 2004	563 (LV)	± 4.2%	46%	43%	11%
Rasmussen Reports^[32]	October 6, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	43%	8%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)^[33]	September 29–30, 2004	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	46%	36%	18%
Mason-Dixon^[34]	September 27–29, 2004	625 (RV)	± 4%	50%	38%	12%
Global Strategy Group (D)^[35]	September 27–29, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	46%	11%
SurveyUSA^[36]	September 19–21, 2004	684 (LV)	± 3.8%	51%	39%	10%
Global Strategy Group (D)^[37]	September 7–9, 2004	600 (LV)	± 4%	44%	41%	15%
SurveyUSA^[38]	August 16–18, 2004	727 (LV)	± 3.7%	52%	39%	9%
SurveyUSA^[39]	July 10–12, 2004	702 (LV)	± 3.8%	48%	41%	11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[40]	June 28–29, 2004	600 (LV)	± 4%	47%	41%	12%
Hickman Research (D)^[41]	March 14–18, 2004	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	33%	48%	19%
Hickman Research (D)^[42]	Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003	628 (LV)	± 3.9%	33%	48%	19%
DSCC (D)^[43]^[24]	May 2003		± %	33%	45%	22%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[10]	Margin of error	David Beasley (R)	Inez Tenenbaum (D)	Undecided
Hickman Research (D)^[44]	March 14–18, 2004	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	41%	46%	13%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)^[45]^[46]	February 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	48%	32%	20%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[10]	Margin of error	Charlie Condon (R)	Inez Tenenbaum (D)	Undecided
Hickman Research (D)^[41]	March 14–18, 2004	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	40%	47%	13%
Hickman Research (D)^[42]	Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003	628 (LV)	± 3.9%	36%	48%	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[10]	Margin of error	Thomas Ravenel (R)	Inez Tenenbaum (D)	Undecided
Hickman Research (D)^[42]	Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003	628 (LV)	± 3.9%	29%	49%	22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[10]	Margin of error	Jim DeMint (R)	Fritz Hollings (D)	Undecided
DSCC (D)^[43]^[24]	May 2003		± %	38%	43%	19%

Results

South Carolina U.S. Senate Election, 2004
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Jim DeMint•	857,167	53.67%	+8.00%
	Democratic	Inez Tenenbaum	704,384	44.10%	−8.60%
	Constitution	Patrick Tyndall	13,464	0.84%	N/A
	Libertarian	Rebekah E. Sutherland	10,678	0.67%	−0.92%
	United Citizens	Tee Ferguson	5,859	0.37%	N/A
	Green	Efia Nwangaza*	4,245	0.27%	N/A
	No party	Write-Ins	1,286	0.08%	N/A
Majority			152,783	9.57%	+2.54%
Turnout			1,597,221	69.0%	+16.2%
	Republican gain from Democratic
*Nwangaza ran under the Independence Party in Aiken and Calhoun counties; her totals are combined.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Abbeville (Largest city: Abbeville)
Georgetown (Largest city: Murrells Inlet)
Lancaster (Largest city: Lancaster)
Union (Largest city: Union)
Barnwell (Largest city: Barnwell)
Berkeley (Largest city: Goose Creek)
Cherokee (Largest city: Gaffney)
Dorchester (Largest city: North Charleston)
Edgefield (Largest city: Edgefield)
Florence (Largest city: Florence)
Greenwood (Largest city: Greenwood)
Kershaw (Largest city: Cmaden)
Laurens (Largest city: Laurens)
Newberry (Largest city: Newberry)
Saluda (Largest city: Saluda)

References

^ "Hollings Retirement Could Hurt Democrats". wfmynews2.com. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
^ "Columbia Mayor Bob Coble drops out of Senate race". WISTV. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e "Coalition of The Willing?". Roll Call. June 6, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
^ "Corzine Looks For Millionaires". Roll Call. May 2, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
^ "Democrats Brace for Possible Hollings Exit". Roll Call. May 20, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
^ "Who Will Replace Hollings?". wltx.com. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
^ http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/2004congresults.pdf OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS FOR UNITED STATES SENATE (2004). www.fec.gov. p. 72. Retrieved October 24, 2013.
^ news.google.com/newspapers. ^{[dead link‍]}.
^ "MCBRIDE ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL". January 7, 2003.. fee required.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ SurveyUSA
^ ^a ^b ^c Public Opinion Strategies (R)
^ SurveyUSA
^ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
^ p. 2
^ SurveyUSA
^ SurveyUSA
^ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
^ SurveyUSA
^ p. 2
^ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
^ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
^ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
^ ^a ^b ^c p. 2
^ Basswood Research (R)
^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
^ SurveyUSA
^ McLaughlin & Associates
^ SurveyUSA
^ Mason-Dixon
^ SurveyUSA
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
^ Mason-Dixon
^ Global Strategy Group (D)
^ SurveyUSA
^ Global Strategy Group (D)
^ SurveyUSA
^ SurveyUSA
^ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
^ ^a ^b Hickman Research (D)
^ ^a ^b ^c Hickman Research (D)
^ ^a ^b DSCC (D)
^ Hickman Research (D)
^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
^ p. 2

Harrell, Peter E. (October 14, 2004). "SOUTH CAROLINA: Debate Poses Question of Who Has Momentum". The New York Times. Retrieved February 1, 2008.
Graham, Michael (November 1, 2004). "The Revolutionary". National Review Online. Retrieved February 1, 2008.

[1] "Hollings Retirement Could Hurt Democrats". wfmynews2.com. Retrieved February 13, 2022.

[2] "Columbia Mayor Bob Coble drops out of Senate race". WISTV. Retrieved February 13, 2022.

[:0-3] "Coalition of The Willing?". Roll Call. June 6, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.

[4] "Corzine Looks For Millionaires". Roll Call. May 2, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.

[5] "Democrats Brace for Possible Hollings Exit". Roll Call. May 20, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.

[6] "Who Will Replace Hollings?". wltx.com. Retrieved February 13, 2022.

[7] ttp://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/2004congresults.pdf OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS FOR UNITED STATES SENATE (2004). www.fec.gov. p. 72. Retrieved October 24, 2013.

[8] ws.google.com/newspapers. ^{[dead link‍]}.

[9] "MCBRIDE ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL". January 7, 2003.. fee required.

[ReferenceA-10] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[11] SurveyUSA

[Public_Opinion_Strategies_R-12] Public Opinion Strategies (R)

[13] SurveyUSA

[14] Richard Quinn & Associates (R)

[15] . 2

[16] SurveyUSA

[17] SurveyUSA

[18] Richard Quinn & Associates (R)

[19] SurveyUSA

[20] . 2

[21] Richard Quinn & Associates (R)

[22] Public Opinion Strategies (R)

[23] Richard Quinn & Associates (R)

[p._2-24] . 2

[25] Basswood Research (R)

[26] "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.

[27] SurveyUSA

[28] McLaughlin & Associates

[29] SurveyUSA

[30] Mason-Dixon

[31] SurveyUSA

[32] Rasmussen Reports

[33] McLaughlin & Associates (R)

[34] Mason-Dixon

[35] Global Strategy Group (D)

[36] SurveyUSA

[37] Global Strategy Group (D)

[38] SurveyUSA

[39] SurveyUSA

[40] Public Opinion Strategies (R)

[Hickman_Research_D-41] Hickman Research (D)

[newspapers.com-42] Hickman Research (D)

[DSCC_D-43] DSCC (D)

[44] Hickman Research (D)

[45] McLaughlin & Associates (R)

[46] . 2

[1]

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v t e Elections in South Carolina
General	1900 1902 1903 1904 1906 1907 1908 1910 1912 1913 1914 1916 1917 1918 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1926 1927 1928 1930 1932 1933 1934 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1942 1943 1944 1946 1949 1950 1952 1953 1954 1956 1958 1959 1960 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1972 1973 1974 1976 1980 1988 1992 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
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State House	2018 2020 2022
Governor	1865 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
U.S. President	1788-89 1792 1796 1800 1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
U.S. Senate	Class 2: 1789 1793 1796 (special) 1798 (special) 1799 1801 (special) 1810 (special) 1810 1816 (special) 1822 1828 1832 (special) 1834 1840 1845 (special) 1846 1850 (special) 1852 1858 (special) 1868 1870 1876 1882 1888 1894 1900 1906 1912 1918 (special) 1918 1924 1930 1936 1941 (special) 1942 1948 1954 1956 (special) 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 Class 3: 1789 1794/95 1800 1802 (special) 1804 (special) 1806 1812 1818 1824 1826 (special) 1830 1833 (special) 1837 1842 (special) 1848 1854 1857 (special) 1868 (special) 1872 1878 1884 1890 1897 1898 (special) 1903 1909 1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1966 (special) 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2014 (special) 2016 2022
U.S. House	1788 1790 1793 1794 5th sp 1795 2nd sp 1796 1797 1st sp 1798 1800 1802 4th sp 1803 1804 1805 8th sp 1806 1807 6th sp 1808 1810 1st sp 1810 1812 1814 1816 9th sp 1818 6th sp 1820 1821 9th sp 1822 2nd sp 4th sp 9th sp 1823 1824 1825 1st sp 1826 1828 1830 1833 1834 8th sp 1836 4th sp 8th sp 1838 1840 1843 1844 1846 1848 1st sp 1850 1853 1854 1856 1858 1860 1868 1870 1st sp 1872 1874 1876 2nd sp 1878 1880 1882 1884 7th sp 1886 1888 1890 1892 6th sp 1894 1st sp 4th sp 1896 7th sp 1897 6th sp 1898 1900 1901 7th sp 1902 1904 2nd sp 1906 1908 1910 1912 1913 1st sp 1914 1915 4th sp 1916 1917 5th sp 1918 1919 6th sp 7th sp 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 6th sp 1940 1942 1944 2nd sp 1946 1948 1950 1952 1953 4th sp 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 2nd sp 1964 1965 2nd sp 1966 1968 1970 1971 1st sp 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 2nd sp 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 1st sp 2014 2016 2017 5th sp 2018 2020 2022 Special
See also: Political party strength in South Carolina

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined to run

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Defeated in primary

Campaign

Polling

Results

General election

Candidates

Major

Minor

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References