DICE framework

The DICE framework, or Duration, Integrity, Commitment, and Effort framework is a tool for evaluating projects,^[1] predicting project outcomes, and allocating resources strategically to maximize delivery of a program or portfolio of initiatives, aiming for consistency in evaluating projects with subjective inputs. The framework produces the DICE score, an indicator of the likely success of a project based on various measures.^[2] DICE was originally developed by Perry Keenan, Kathleen Conlon, and Alan Jackson, all current or former partners at the Boston Consulting Group.^[3] It was first published in the Harvard Business Review^[4] in 2005. The DICE framework was awarded a patent in 2014.^[5] Although originally developed at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG),^[6] this framework has become widely adopted^[7] and is used by companies and professionals alike.

DICE acronym

The acronym DICE stands for:

Duration (D):: either the total duration of short projects, or the time between two milestones on longer projects
Team performance integrity (I): the project team's ability to execute successfully, with specific emphasis on the ability of the project leader
Commitment (C): levels of support, composed of two factors:; C₁ visible backing from the sponsor and senior executives for the change; C₂ support from those who are impacted by the change
Effort (E): how much effort will it require to implement (above and beyond business as usual)

Calculation

Based on the statistical analysis from the outcome of change projects, success can be determined by assessing four factors (duration, team performance integrity, commitment, and effort). A DICE score between 7 and 14 is in the "Win" Zone (very likely to succeed), while a DICE score between 14 and 17 falls in the "Worry" Zone (hard to predict success), and a DICE score higher than 17 falls in the "Woe" Zone (indicating high unpredictability or likely to not succeed).^[8] The DICE score is calculated according to the following formula:^[9]

D + (2 x I) + (2 x C₁) + C₂ + E

Duration: < 2 months = 1; 2-4 months = 2; 4-8 months = 3; > 8 months = 4

Team performance integrity: Very good = 1; Good = 2; Average = 3; Poor = 4

Commitment (senior management): Clearly and strongly communicate the need = 1; Seem to want success = 2; Neutral = 3; Reluctant = 4

Commitment (local): Eager = 1; Willing = 2; Reluctant = 3; Strongly Reluctant = 4

Effort: < 10% additional = 1; 10-20% additional = 2; 20-40% additional = 3; > 40 % additional = 4

References

^ Sirkin, Harold; Keenan, Perry; Jackson, Alan (2005). "The Hard Side of Change Management". Harvard Business Review. 83 (10): 108–18, 158. PMID 16250629.
^ Concas, Giulio; Giulio Concas; Ernesto Damiani; Marco Scotto (June 2007). Agile Processes in Software Engineering and Extreme Programming. Springer. p. 144. ISBN 978-3-540-73100-9.
^ Banhegyi, Stephen George and Eugenie May (April 2007). The Art and Science of Change. STS Trust. p. 97. ISBN 978-0-9802550-3-4.
^ Sirkin, Harold; Keenan, Perry; Jackson, Alan (2005). "The Hard Side of Change Management". Harvard Business Review. 83 (10): 108–18, 158. PMID 16250629.
^ "DICE Patent". United States Patent and Trademark Office, USPTO.^{[permanent dead link‍]}
^ Banhegyi, Stephen George and Eugenie May (April 2007). The Art and Science of Change. STS Trust. p. 97. ISBN 978-0-9802550-3-4.
^ Extreme Programming and Agile Processes in Software Engineering. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Vol. 4044. Springer. July 26, 2006. pp. 116–121. doi:10.1007/11774129. ISBN 3540350942.
^ Sirkin, Harold; Keenan, Perry; Jackson, Alan (2005). "The Hard Side of Change Management". Harvard Business Review. 83 (10): 108–18, 158. PMID 16250629.
^ Sirkin, Harold; Keenan, Perry; Jackson, Alan (2005). "The Hard Side of Change Management". Harvard Business Review. 83 (10). The Boston Consulting Group: 108–18, 158. PMID 16250629.

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[1] Sirkin, Harold; Keenan, Perry; Jackson, Alan (2005). "The Hard Side of Change Management". Harvard Business Review. 83 (10): 108–18, 158. PMID 16250629.

[2] Concas, Giulio; Giulio Concas; Ernesto Damiani; Marco Scotto (June 2007). Agile Processes in Software Engineering and Extreme Programming. Springer. p. 144. ISBN 978-3-540-73100-9.

[3] Banhegyi, Stephen George and Eugenie May (April 2007). The Art and Science of Change. STS Trust. p. 97. ISBN 978-0-9802550-3-4.

[4] Sirkin, Harold; Keenan, Perry; Jackson, Alan (2005). "The Hard Side of Change Management". Harvard Business Review. 83 (10): 108–18, 158. PMID 16250629.

[5] "DICE Patent". United States Patent and Trademark Office, USPTO.^{[permanent dead link‍]}

[6] Banhegyi, Stephen George and Eugenie May (April 2007). The Art and Science of Change. STS Trust. p. 97. ISBN 978-0-9802550-3-4.

[7] Extreme Programming and Agile Processes in Software Engineering. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Vol. 4044. Springer. July 26, 2006. pp. 116–121. doi:10.1007/11774129. ISBN 3540350942.

[8] Sirkin, Harold; Keenan, Perry; Jackson, Alan (2005). "The Hard Side of Change Management". Harvard Business Review. 83 (10): 108–18, 158. PMID 16250629.

[9] Sirkin, Harold; Keenan, Perry; Jackson, Alan (2005). "The Hard Side of Change Management". Harvard Business Review. 83 (10). The Boston Consulting Group: 108–18, 158. PMID 16250629.

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