A Drop in American Gun Violence

American gun violence can feel like an unsolvable problem, with every mass shooting, like last week’s killings in Maine, affirming that the situation is getting worse. But the U.S. has in fact made some progress over the past few decades, enacting policies that have saved lives.

That is the conclusion of a new study by Patrick Sharkey and Megan Kang at Princeton. Stricter gun laws passed by 40 states from 1991 to 2016 reduced gun deaths by nearly 4,300 in 2016, or about 10 percent of the nationwide total. States with stricter laws, such as background checks and waiting periods, consistently had fewer gun deaths, as this chart by my colleague Ashley Wu shows:

Sharkey told me that the results had surprised him. He has studied violent crime for years, and did not believe that stricter gun laws had a major effect in reducing it. His new takeaway: “The challenge of gun violence is not intractable, and in fact we have just lived through a period of enormous progress that was driven by public policy.”

The country’s progress on guns may surprise you, too. It certainly surprised me. It’s worth reflecting on why. If the data is clear, why haven’t we heard more about these outcomes? To my mind, the lack of attention shows the narrow view that many of us often take toward gun policy.

The smaller things

The national conversation about gun violence focuses on big federal policy ideas. Activists and pundits often speak about the need for a federal law enacting universal background checks or banning assault weapons. Anything short of action at the national level will fail to make the U.S. as safe as Canada, Europe or Japan, the argument goes.

It’s true that guns kill many more people in the U.S. than in other rich countries, and America will likely remain an outlier for the foreseeable future. But the study by Sharkey and Kang shows that changes at the state level can have an effect. Even policies that seem limited, like safety-training requirements or age restrictions, add up.

“There’s no single policy that is going to eliminate the flow or circulation of guns within and across states,” Sharkey said. “But the idea is these kinds of regulations accumulate.”

After all, America’s gun problem is rooted in easy access to firearms. In every country, people get into arguments, hold racist views or suffer from mental health issues. But when these problems turn violent, quick access to guns makes that violence much more likely to become lethal.

Anything that adds barriers to picking up a firearm in such moments reduces deaths, whether it’s incremental state policies or broader federal laws. The new study is one part of a broader line of research demonstrating that point.

Among the many new laws put in place since 1991: California required background checks on private gun sales in 1991, Massachusetts tightened child-access laws in 1998 and Virginia restricted gun ownership by people with mental illnesses in 2008.

After 2016

There is a major caveat to the progress that Sharkey and Kang documented: It seems to have ended.

The new study cuts off in 2016 because later data was not available at the time of the research, Sharkey said. Since 2016, many states have loosened their gun laws, in some cases because Supreme Court rulings have forced them to do so. And firearms sales have surged, particularly during the Covid pandemic.

Congress did pass a narrow gun control law last year that extended background checks and funded anti-violence policies, and some states have continued tightening gun laws. On net, though, U.S. gun laws have become looser in the past seven years.

Gun deaths have increased over the same period, and mass shootings have become more common. These trends — a rise in deaths, looser laws and increased firearm purchases — are likely related, Sharkey said. He pointed out that the six states that had weakened their gun laws from 1991 to 2016 appeared to have experienced more gun deaths than other factors suggested they should have.

As more states have loosened their laws in recent years, they have set themselves up for more gun deaths. “If states take basic steps to regulate guns, it will save thousands and thousands of lives,” Sharkey said. The opposite is also true.

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Border Crossing

• The authorities in Gaza let some foreign passport holders and seriously wounded Palestinians leave the territory and enter Egypt.

• Americans are expected to leave later this week. Antony Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, blamed Hamas for blocking them from crossing the border.

Jabaliya Strike

• An Israeli airstrike hit a densely populated neighborhood north of Gaza City called Jabaliya. Photographs showed a large crater and several demolished buildings.

• Israel said the strike killed Hamas fighters, including a commander who helped lead the Oct. 7 attacks. The Hamas-run Ministry of Health in Gaza said it killed or wounded many people. The Times could not verify either claim.

More on the War

• Israeli forces reached another neighborhood north of Gaza City. At least a quarter of buildings in northern Gaza are damaged, these maps show.

• Communication and internet services have been cut again in Gaza.

• American commandos are in Israel to help locate the more than 200 hostages seized by Hamas.

• Times videographers visited a U.N. camp in southern Gaza, where half the population is younger than 12, to understand what the war looks like through a child’s eyes.

Threats

• Jews in Europe, living in a climate of fear, are experiencing “a fundamental shift in the terms of their existence,” Roger Cohen writes.

• The war has heightened the potential for attacks in the U.S., especially against Jews or Muslims, the F.B.I. director said.

Diplomacy

• The Senate confirmed Jack Lew, a former Treasury secretary, to be the U.S. ambassador to Israel.

• The head of Jerusalem’s Holocaust memorial criticized Israel’s U.N. ambassador for wearing a yellow Star of David at the Security Council.

MORE NEWS

Technology

• The Supreme Court heard arguments about whether elected officials’ social media accounts are allowed to block their constituents.

• Kamala Harris is pushing for global standards on A.I. at a summit in London this week.

• Orlando schools have banned phone use all day — even during free periods — and student engagement has increased.

Health

• A new treatment that uses CRISPR gene editing to combat sickle cell disease is safe and effective, an expert panel said. If approved, it would be the first treatment for humans to use CRISPR.

• A terminally ill man who received a heart from a genetically modified pig has died, six weeks after the transplant.

International

• A drought means the Panama Canal can carry fewer boats, disrupting trade.

• New immigration policies, global migration patterns and changing demographics help to explain the record number of illegal crossings into the U.S. from Mexico.

• The Venezuelan government is trying to annul the opposition’s primary election.

• Workers who left villages for big cities helped China rise as a superpower. Without a safety net or family nearby, the country’s economic downturn has left them vulnerable, Li Yuan writes.

Other Big Stories

• The House speaker has proposed separating aid to Ukraine from aid to Israel, potentially weakening Ukraine. Some Senate Republicans want to keep them linked.

• Some pharmacy workers at CVS and Walgreens are calling in sick or walking out over job conditions. Read more about the latest labor protest.

• A court ruled that the National Association of Realtors and several large brokerages conspired to inflate agents’ commissions.

• A woman in North Dakota has been accused of fatally poisoning her boyfriend with antifreeze. She told investigators she was entitled to part of his $30 million inheritance.

Opinions

The skepticism people have over Hamas’s atrocities stems from the lies the U.S. told to justify the Iraq war, Zeynep Tufekci argues.

Here are columns by Ross Douthat on Israel and the Palestinians and Jamelle Bouie on gun culture.

MORNING READS

Costume party: Heidi Klum, known for her elaborate Halloween outfits, enlisted Cirque du Soleil performers this year to transform her into a giant peacock.

Too steep: A dad worried his rock-climbing adventure had pushed his son too far. Experts say it’s good to challenge our kids — within reason.

Lives Lived: Bertie Bowman began his career in the U.S. Capitol in 1944, sweeping its steps. By the 1960s he was a clerk for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and he eventually became the longest-serving Black staff member in congressional history. He died at 92.

SPORTS

N.F.L.: The Las Vegas Raiders fired their head coach, Josh McDaniels, and their general manager, Dave Ziegler.

Trade deadline: Chase Young and Josh Dobbs found new homes as N.F.L. teams made last-minute changes to their rosters.

M.L.B.: The Texas Rangers are one win away from their first World Series title after beating the Arizona Diamondbacks, 11-7.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Dreaming: Courtney Bryan, an American pianist and composer, recently received a MacArthur “genius” grant. But little of her work, lauded for being eclectic and adventurous, is publicly available. That’s about to change.

Her new work “DREAMING” premieres today, presented by the International Contemporary Ensemble at New York City’s Merkin Hall.

More on culture

• Tyler Christopher, who played Nikolas Cassadine on the soap opera “General Hospital” for two decades, died at 50.

• Charlamagne Tha God guest-hosted “The Daily Show” and made fun of Ron DeSantis’s heels.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Bake Claire Saffitz’s ultimate chocolate cake.

Organize your work space and keep clutter to a minimum.

Stock a guest room with these essentials.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was volatility.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German

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