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Thursday, March 13, 2025
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MacroSutra

Budget tries to balance growth with fiscal prudence, but relies on spending cuts over revenue boost

Govt has done well to stick to path of fiscal consolidation. It’s unclear if compression of revenue spends net of interest payments is the direction the govt would like to take in coming yrs.

Why India’s liquidity management framework requires a thorough review

Liquidity has been a concern as banks have been grappling for stable deposits for months. This is reflected in an increase in the credit-deposit ratio for individual banks.

Amid challenges, the upcoming budget & monetary policy must work in tandem to focus on growth

The Union Budget must cut revenue expenditure so growth-boosting tax cuts are possible, while monetary policy should focus on growth-inflation dynamics instead of defending the falling rupee.

Rupee pressure likely to persist for now. Flexibility may be apt strategy for RBI to counter uncertainty

Rupee had a major fall this week, led by strong US macro data, rising crude prices. China's currency moves, Japan’s possible rate hike & domestic growth concerns may maintain pressure.

Govt estimates of GDP growth reveal several pain points. Budget 2025 should prioritise consumption

The first advance estimates peg India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth at 6.4 percent in FY 2024-25, compared to 8.2 percent growth recorded in...

Indian banks have solid asset quality & profitability for now, but risks are emerging on both counts

Narrowing of the wedge between credit and deposit growth, and the possible easing of the monetary policy, could weigh on the net interest margin of banks in 2025.

India is speeding towards 4th largest economy spot, but global & domestic challenges await in 2025

A big source of uncertainty will be trade after Trump assumes office. However, within India, rural demand is likely to sustain momentum & inflation is less likely to be a big problem.

Debt stock of low- & middle-income nations is troubling. Their debt servicing costs are soaring, too

Economic activity has rebounded in LMICs post pandemic, but the debt accumulated in that period has continued to grow, driven by both short & long-term debt.

Balancing inflation & growth, managing rupee: New RBI governor’s docket will be full of challenges

With Sanjay Malhotra at the helm, RBI could shift towards a more dovish monetary policy, but the conventional policy response of rate cuts will not be a given with rising pressure on rupee.

7 months into FY25, govt has met just 42% of capex target, low GDP growth puts strain on fiscal goals

Corporate tax collections saw modest growth of just 1.2%, but a 20.2% rise in income tax collections helped strengthen the government's overall revenue position.

On Camera

Holi wasn’t always about Holika burning. Medieval India called it festival of Kama

The ‘eastern’ tradition of Holika-burning moved deeper into the Gangetic Plains. Gaudiya Vaishnavism, from Bengal, took root in Mughal-ruled Vrindavan, attracting patronage from elite Rajputs.

Revenue streams stagnating, Siddaramaiah guarantees & dearth of central funds push up Karnataka debt

Karnataka’s liabilities have increased from 23.97 percent of GSDP in 2022-23 to 24.91 percent in 2025-26, the state's medium-term fiscal plan has shown.

Framework to restrict Chinese components in military drones submitted to defence ministry

Army Design Bureau Director General Major General C. S. Mann says the framework is likely to be implemented in a few months.

Trick or retreat: There’s a grand deception behind Indian military shortfalls, and in this column

It is fashionable to curse Rajiv Gandhi for Bofors and more, but the truth is that 1985-89 was the only period in our history when weapons acquisitions were proactive and futuristic.