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. 2023 Mar 28;14(1):1721.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-37276-4.

Thawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination

Moritz Langer  1   2 , Thomas Schneider von Deimling  3   4 , Sebastian Westermann  5   6 , Rebecca Rolph  3   4 , Ralph Rutte  7 , Sofia Antonova  3 , Volker Rachold  8 , Michael Schultz  9 , Alexander Oehme  3   4 , Guido Grosse  3   10
Affiliations

Thawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination

Moritz Langer et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

Industrial contaminants accumulated in Arctic permafrost regions have been largely neglected in existing climate impact analyses. Here we identify about 4500 industrial sites where potentially hazardous substances are actively handled or stored in the permafrost-dominated regions of the Arctic. Furthermore, we estimate that between 13,000 and 20,000 contaminated sites are related to these industrial sites. Ongoing climate warming will increase the risk of contamination and mobilization of toxic substances since about 1100 industrial sites and 3500 to 5200 contaminated sites located in regions of stable permafrost will start to thaw before the end of this century. This poses a serious environmental threat, which is exacerbated by climate change in the near future. To avoid future environmental hazards, reliable long-term planning strategies for industrial and contaminated sites are needed that take into account the impacts of cimate change.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Potential impacts of thawing permafrost on above- and below-ground industrial infrastructure containing toxic substances or waste.
Past and present industrial activities in the Arctic result in various accumulations of hazardous substances in the Arctic a. The warming and thaw of near surface permafrost unlocks frozen disposal sites and destabilizes foundations and containment structures b. Furthermore, permafrost thaw intensifies thermo-hydrological erosion and increases the lateral flow of water, fostering the dispersion of contaminants.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Occurrence of industrial sites in permafrost dominated regions of the Arctic.
The permafrost model domain (permafrost occurrence probability >50%) is delineated based on the Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Map (NHPM) and the database of industrial sites is based on OpenStreetMap (OSM) and the 2019 Nordregio Atlas of Population, Society and Economy in the Arctic (APSEA). Background map is based on the National Geographic World Map. While the industrial sectors Energy and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) account for the largest proportion of industrial sites among the clearly labeled data, more than 65% of the mapped industrial sites are not clearly labeled. This creates a large uncertainty in quantifying specific industry sectors and highlights the need for improved databases on industrial activities in the Arctic. Maps were created by using ArcGIS version 10.5 (Esri Inc., USA).
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Industrial and contaminated sites within permafrost dominated regions of the North American continent.
Maps show the distributions of industrial and contaminated sites located within permafrost dominated regions in a Alaska as reported by the Contaminated Sites Program (CSP) and b in Canada as reported by the Federal Contaminated Sites Inventory (FCSI). Background map is based on the National Geographic World Map. Our classification Cleanup complete and Not cleaned up refers to information on whether hazardous substances have been removed or remain (or are suspected to remain) in the environment. Maps were created by using ArcGIS version 10.5 (Esri Inc., USA).
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. Toxic substances at contaminated sites in the permafrost dominated regions of Alaska.
The stacked bar plot depicts the relative occurrence of the most common toxic substances found at contaminated sites in permafrost dominated regions of Alaska (based on 22), as reported by the Contaminated Sites Program (CSP). The occurrence is further differentiated by industry sector: Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Energy, Military, and Waste. Toxic substances from Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) occur in negligible numbers. The toxicity of each substance is indicated using the median lethal concentration for fish (LC50-fish) after 96 h (see also Supplementary Table 1).
Fig. 5
Fig. 5. Projected densities of contaminated sites in Arctic permafrost dominated regions.
The density maps of contaminated sites per area as derived by the point process models for a Alaska and b Canada with dots depicting the locations of industrial and contaminated sites. Map c shows the predicted density of contaminated sites for the permafrost dominated region in Russia with dots showing the data on contaminated sites surveyed in this study and that are used for model validation. Applying the model to the entire permafrost model domain yields a pan-Arctic map of estimated contaminated site density d. Note that the speckled appearance results from the regional clustering of industrial sites combined with the chosen bandwidth (50 × 50 km) of the gaussian density filter used for the point process models. Map generated with Python using the Basemap Matplotlib library and the GSHHG dataset.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6. Industrial and contaminated sites affected by permafrost thaw under global warming conditions.
a Number of industrial sites and number of upscaled contaminated sites located in the permafrost dominated region modeled to be affected by permafrost thaw based on RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 warming scenarios (model mean from the CMIP5 projections based on CCSM4 and HADGEM2-ES). The shaded areas show the uncertainty range due to the spatial extrapolations based on the two point process models (PPM1 and PPM2). b The related global temperature increase is shown as an anomaly compared to the pre-industrial period (1850–1900).
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