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Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera

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Abstract

Eruption forecasting and hazard assessments at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera, within the Neapolitan volcanic area, have been performed using stratigraphical, volcanological, structural and petrological data.

On the basis of the reconstructed variation of eruption magnitude through time, we hypothesize that the most probable maximum expected event is a medium-magnitude explosive eruption, fed by trachytic magma. Such an eruption could likely occur in the north-eastern sector of the caldera floor that is under a tensile stress regime, when the ongoing deformation will generate mechanical failure of the rocks. A vent could open also in the western sector, at the intersection of two fault systems contemporaneously activated, as happened in the last eruption at Monte Nuovo. The eruption could likely be preceded by precursors apparent to the population, such as ground deformation, seismicity and increase in gas emissions. It will probably alternate between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases with the generation of tephra fallout, and dilute and turbulent pyroclastic currents. During and/or after the eruption, the re-mobilization of ash by likely heavy rains, could probably generate mud flows.

In order to perform a zoning of the territory in relation to the expected volcanic hazards, we have constructed a comprehensive hazard map. On this map are delimited (I) areas of variable probability of opening of a new vent, (II) areas which could be affected by variable load of fallout deposits, and (III) areas over which pyroclastic currents could flow. The areas in which a vent could likely open have been defined on the basis of the dynamics of the ongoing deformation of the caldera floor. To construct the fallout hazard map we have used the frequency of deposition of fallout beds thicker than 10 cm, the frequency of load on the ground by tephra fallout and the direction of dispersal axes of the deposits of the last 5 ka, and the limit load of collapse for the variable types of roof construction. The pyroclastic-current hazard map is based on the areal distribution and frequency of pyroclastic-current deposits of the last 5 ka.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge L. Civetta for constructive discussions and review of the manuscript, P. De Simone for the geo-technical analyses and interpretation of the results, and F. Dell’Erba for the enthusiastic help given during field work. The Soprintendenza Archeologica di Napoli e Caserta is thanked for allowing us to visit archaeological excavations, and in particular A. Marzocchella, D. Gianpaola and E. Laforgia for fruitful discussions on both volcanological and archaeological implications on the excavations exposures. The authors are indebted to E. Bellucci Sessa for generously elaborating the pyroclastic dispersion and load maps by Arcinfo, and to V. Augusti and F. Sansivero for preparation of the illustrations. This manuscript benefited greatly from detailed reviews and useful suggestions by S. Sparks and C. Newhall. The research has been carried out within the 2000–2003 Framework Program of the Gruppo Nazionale per la Vulcanologia with the financial support of the Italian Department for Civil Defence.

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  1. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, 80124 , Napoli, Italy

    Giovanni Orsi, Mauro Antonio Di Vito & Roberto Isaia

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  1. Giovanni Orsi
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  2. Mauro Antonio Di Vito
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  3. Roberto Isaia
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Correspondence to Giovanni Orsi.

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Orsi, G., Di Vito, M.A. & Isaia, R. Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera. Bull Volcanol 66, 514–530 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-003-0336-4

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