Jump to content

Meteorological history of Hurricane Michael

Add links
This is a good article. Click here for more information.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Hurricane Noah (talk | contribs) at 12:28, 13 December 2020 (Sorry to everyone who signed that consensus, but it shouldn't get in the way of article improvement). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Hurricane Michael
Category 5 major hurricane (SSHWS/NWS)
Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
FormedOctober 7, 2018
DissipatedOctober 16, 2018
(Extratropical after October 11)
Highest winds1-minute sustained: 160 mph (260 km/h)
Lowest pressure919 mbar (hPa); 27.14 inHg
Areas affectedCentral America, Yucatán Peninsula, Cuba, Southeastern United States (especially the Florida Panhandle and Georgia), Eastern United States, Eastern Canada, Iberian Peninsula
Part of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
Template:Hurricane Michael related

Hurricane Michael was the tenth strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record and the first Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the mainland United States since Andrew in 1992. It was the thirteenth named storm, seventh hurricane, and second major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.[1] Michael originated over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in early October 2018. A series of events took place that led to the formation of a tropical depression by 06:00 UTC on October 7. Despite being in a region of strong vertical wind shear, the depression began a period of rapid intensification soon after forming, strengthening into Tropical Storm Michael by 12:00 UTC on the same day. Tracking generally northward, Michael intensified into a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale around 12:00 UTC on October 8. The hurricane developed an eye around the same time. The storm passed just west of western Cuba around 18:30 UTC as it reached its initial peak intensity. The eyewall of the storm degraded between October 8–9, temporarily halting Michael's intensification.

Rapid intensification resumed by the middle of October 9 and Michael became a Category 3 major hurricane by 18:00 UTC. The cyclone's eye became well-defined as it strengthened; the eye warmed and became surrounded by very cold cloud-tops. Michael peaked as a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) and a pressure of 919 mbar (27.14 inHg) at 17:30 UTC on October 10, as it made landfall near Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida. After landfall, the hurricane rapidly weakened as it moved northeastward, falling to tropical storm intensity by 06:00 UTC on October 11. Michael began to undergo the transition to an extratropical cyclone later in the day as it passed through North Carolina. Michael became fully extratropical on the next day and emerged into the Atlantic Ocean. It reacquired hurricane-force winds while south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on October 13. The extratropical cyclone quickly traveled eastward while weakening, dissipating west of Portugal early on October 16.

Origins and development

Satellite image of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen developing east of the Yucatán Peninsula on October 6
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen developing east of the Yucatán Peninsula on October 6

A large area of disturbed weather spawned over the mid-to-western Caribbean Sea around October 1–2, 2018, and absorbed the remnants of Tropical Storm Kirk.[2] The National Hurricane Center (NHC) anticipated on October 2 that strong upper-level winds would prevent any significant development of the system for at least a couple of days.[3] On the same day, a tropical wave – an elongated trough of low air pressure – tracked into the area. This possibly led to an increase in thunderstorm activity which in turn gave rise to a surface low southwest of Jamaica on October 3.[2] Although the low was initially predicted to travel northward,[4] it instead tracked west-southwestward and moved ashore in northeastern Honduras on October 4. The low became incorporated into a broad cyclonic gyre which was located over Central America by October 5. A center which was located over the eastern Pacific moved across Central America on October 6 and integrated into the gyre. The gyre's center reformed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on the same day.[2]

Due to the imminent threat that the system posed to land, the NHC began issuing advisories on it as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen around 21:00 UTC on October 6. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough located over the Gulf of Mexico was imparting vertical wind shear over the system. Despite this, the system's convection or thunderstorm activity, as well as its circulation, were improving in organization on both satellite imagery and in surface observations.[5] The disturbance tracked generally northward within the southerly flow between a subtropical ridge which was located over the western Atlantic Ocean and a mid-latitude trough that was traveling eastward across the United States.[6] A tropical depression spawned around 06:00 UTC on October 7, approximately 150 mi (240 km) south of Cozumel, Mexico.[2] Around that time, Belizean radar showed that convection was forming just northeast of the depression's low-level center. The nascent depression was located in an environment of strong wind shear and warm 82–86 °F (28–30 °C) sea surface temperatures.[7] Around 12:00 UTC, the depression intensified into a tropical storm, receiving the name Michael. During the next six hours, the center of the storm relocated to the northeast as a result of flaring convection in that region. The system proceeded to travel slightly east of north as it rounded the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that was located over the western Atlantic.[2]

Rapid intensification and landfall at peak intensity

Hurricane Michael making landfall in the Florida Panhandle at peak intensity on October 10.

After forming, Michael began a period of rapid intensification.[2] Initially, the NHC had predicted Michael to reach a peak intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h) as wind shear was expected to persist for at least two days,[5] however, Michael became significantly stronger by the time it made landfall, reaching Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Two factors may have helped to facilitate the cyclone's intensification; the first was diffluence or streamline divergence – the elongating of a fluid body normal to the flow – originating from an upper-level trough that was counteracting the wind shear. The second factor was that Michael's outflow entered another upper-level trough that was located east of the storm.[2] A WC-130 aircraft from the United States Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron discovered that Michael had been quickly intensifying as it surveyed the tropical cyclone in the afternoon and evening of October 7, measuring peak stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) winds between 45–60 mph (75–100 km/h) during its mission.[8][9] Although Michael had strengthened to 60 mph (95 km/h) by 00:00 UTC on October 8, most of the storm's convection remained displaced to its eastern side as a result of the wind shear. Microwave imagery, however, showed that the core of Michael had improved, with one banding feature curving around most of the storm.[2][9]

The tropical storm continued to organize, with convection and outflow increasing in the western half of the system.[10] Michael became a Category 1 hurricane around 12:00 UTC on October 8.[2] An eye was beginning to appear in satellite imagery around the same time.[11] Around 18:30 UTC on October 8, Michael reached its initial peak intensity as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph (155 km/h) as it tracked just west of Cabo del San Antonio, Cuba.[2] During the overnight, Michael's eyewall began to degrade due to a cold water eddy, dry air incursion, and wind shear, signaling that the rapid intensification had ceased.[2][12] Shortly after, the hurricane's banding features began to improve as the system was located over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.[11][12] By 12:00 UTC on October 9, Michael had begun to rapidly intensify once more;[2] its eye had become better defined and outflow improved as the westerly shear decreased.[13] Meanwhile, the hurricane was tracking north-northwest due to a mid-level ridge. The tropical cyclone strengthened into a Category 3 major hurricane[nb 1] by 18:00 UTC as cold convection developed over the eastern and southeastern regions of the storm and wrapped around its eyewall.[2][15] Cloud temperatures decreased to −103 °F (−75 °C) in the central dense overcast and were as low as −126 °F (−88 °C) in the eyewall.[16]

Michael resumed a northward trek early on October 10 as it traveled between the ridge and a mid-latitude shortwave trough. Outflow generated by the trough may have hastened Michael's rapid intensification until landfall.[2] The outer rainbands of Michael began to move ashore around 10:00 UTC, and the cyclone's eye continued to warm as it approached the Florida Panhandle, however, radar imagery showed a secondary eyewall was beginning to form.[17][18] The hurricane's direction shifted to the northeast under the influence of the westerlies. Michael reached its peak intensity as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 919 mbar (27.14 inHg) around 17:30 UTC on October 10, as it made landfall near Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida.[2] Operationally, the NHC had reported Michael's landfall intensity as 155 mph (250 km/h) based on flight-level winds of 175 mph (282 km/h) and SFMR readings between 152–159 mph (244–256 km/h).[19] However, some data from the SFMR instrument was missing and had to be reconstructed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Aircraft Operation Center. This data yielded a peak SFMR value of 175 mph (282 km/h) for the time that the reconnaissance aircraft surveyed the southern eyewall. Additionally, doppler weather radar from Eglin Air Force Base estimated peak winds of 178 mph (287 km/h) at 17:22 UTC, around the same location as the aircraft. The radar displayed that stronger winds existed northeast of the aircraft, outside its field of observation.[2]

Trek over land, extratropical transition, and demise

Satellite image of Michael as a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone on October 13
Michael as a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone on October 13

After moving ashore, Michael quickly became less intense; by 21:30 UTC on October 10, just four hours after landfall, Michael had weakened below Category 3 status before moving into southwestern Georgia.[2] Around that time, the hurricane was continuing to track northeast under the influence of the westerlies.[19] Doppler radar displayed that Michael had continued to degrade,[20] with the storm weakening into a high-end Category 1 hurricane by 00:00 UTC.[2] At that time, the peak winds were confined to a region of convection near Michael's low-level center.[20] Six hours later, Michael fell to tropical storm intensity,[2] with only a small zone of storm-force winds existing near its center. Most of the peak winds were displaced to the southeast, over the Atlantic Ocean.[21] The storm entered South Carolina around 15:00 UTC on October 11. By that time, all of the gale-force winds associated with Michael were occurring over the Atlantic Ocean and along the shoreline.[2][22]

As Michael entered North Carolina late on October 11, it began to transition into an extratropical cyclone.[2] Cold, dry air entrained into the storm's circulation. Winds increased northwest of the storm's elongating center, over the states of North Carolina and Virginia.[2][22] Michael became fully extratropical by 00:00 UTC on October 12 as it traveled east-northeastward, just north of Raleigh, North Carolina. Around that time, another low-level center with a lower pressure had formed farther north, near Chesapeake Bay, as baroclinic processes began to restrengthen the former hurricane.[23] The extratropical cyclone emerged into the Atlantic around 06:00 UTC after passing near Norfolk, Virginia. Michael obtained hurricane-force winds on October 13 while in the Atlantic waters south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. It quickly traveled to the northeastern Atlantic by October 14.[2] The cyclone turned sharply southeastward and later southward around the northeastern edge of the ridge, weakening slightly, as it approached the Iberian Peninsula. Michael dissipated by 00:00 UTC on October 16, located just west of northern Portugal.[2]

Records

Most intense landfalling Atlantic hurricanes
Intensity is measured solely by central pressure
Rank Hurricane Season Landfall pressure
1 "Labor Day"[nb 2] 1935 892 mbar (hPa)
2 Camille 1969 900 mbar (hPa)
Gilbert 1988
4 Dean 2007 905 mbar (hPa)
5 "Cuba" 1924 910 mbar (hPa)
Dorian 2019
7 Janet 1955 914 mbar (hPa)
Irma 2017
9 "Cuba" 1932 918 mbar (hPa)
10 Michael 2018 919 mbar (hPa)
Sources: HURDAT,[1] AOML/HRD,[25] NHC[26]

With maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) and a central pressure of 919 mbar (27.14 inHg) at landfall, Michael was the most intense landfalling mainland U.S. hurricane since Camille in 1969, which had a central pressure of 900 mbar (26.58 inHg). Hurricane Michael was the first landfalling Category 5 Atlantic hurricane in the U.S. since Andrew in 1992, which had 165 mph (270 km/h) winds.[27] Michael is tied with the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane for the sixth-strongest tropical cyclone by wind speed to impact the United States (including its overseas territories), and was the fourth strongest to impact the U.S. mainland.[28] Additionally, Michael was the second-most intense hurricane by pressure to make landfall in Florida, behind the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, and the third strongest by wind, behind the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Andrew.[29]

Michael was the second-most intense hurricane to have made landfall during the month of October in the North Atlantic basin (including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea), behind the 1924 Cuba hurricane.[30] Michael was the first recorded Category 4 or 5 hurricane to strike the Florida Panhandle since reliable records began in 1851.[31]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ A major hurricane is one that ranks at Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale.[14]
  2. ^ Storms with quotations are officially unnamed. Tropical storms and hurricanes were not named before the year 1950.[24]

References

  1. ^ a b "Atlantic hurricane best track (HURDAT version 2)" (Database). United States National Hurricane Center. May 11, 2024. Retrieved January 30, 2025. Public Domain This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x Beven, John; Berg, Robbie; Hagen, Andrew (17 May 2019). Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Michael (PDF) (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived (PDF) from the original on 29 July 2020. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
  3. ^ Stewart, Stacy (2 October 2018). Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook [200 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018] (Report). NHC Graphical Outlook Archive. National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 5 March 2019. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
  4. ^ Avila, Lixion (3 October 2018). Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook [800 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018] (Report). NHC Graphical Outlook Archive. National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 19 August 2020. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
  5. ^ a b Beven, Jack (6 October 2018). Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number 1 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 5 March 2019. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
  6. ^ Avila, Lixion (7 October 2018). Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number 2 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 8 July 2020. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
  7. ^ Berg, Robbie (7 October 2018). Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 5 March 2019. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
  8. ^ Brown, Daniel (7 October 2018). Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 5 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 8 July 2020. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
  9. ^ a b Stewart, Stacy (8 October 2018). Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 6 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 5 March 2019. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
  10. ^ Berg, Robbie (8 October 2018). Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 7 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 14 January 2019. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
  11. ^ a b Daniel, Brown (8 October 2018). Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 8 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 5 March 2019. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
  12. ^ a b Beven, Jack (9 October 2018). Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 11 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 6 August 2020. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
  13. ^ Brown, Daniel (9 October 2018). Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 12 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 8 July 2020. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
  14. ^ "Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale". National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 20 June 2020. Retrieved 22 June 2020.
  15. ^ Brown, Daniel (9 October 2018). Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 13 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 5 March 2019. Retrieved 19 August 2020.
  16. ^ Stewart, Stacy (10 October 2018). Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 14 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 5 March 2019. Retrieved 19 August 2020.
  17. ^ Beven, Jack (10 October 2018). Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  18. ^ Brown, Daniel (10 October 2018). Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 16 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 19 August 2020. Retrieved 19 August 2020.
  19. ^ a b Brown, Daniel (10 October 2018). Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 17 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 8 July 2020. Retrieved 19 August 2020.
  20. ^ a b Stewart, Stacy (11 October 2018). Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 18 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 19 August 2020. Retrieved 19 August 2020.
  21. ^ Beven, Jack (11 October 2018). Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 19 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 10 July 2020. Retrieved 19 August 2020.
  22. ^ a b Brown, Daniel (11 October 2018). Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 21 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 12 October 2018. Retrieved 19 August 2020.
  23. ^ Berg, Robbie (12 October 2018). Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 22 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on 19 August 2020. Retrieved 19 August 2020.
  24. ^ Landsea, Christopher; Dorst, Neal (June 1, 2014). "Subject: Tropical Cyclone Names: B1) How are tropical cyclones named?". Tropical Cyclone Frequently Asked Question. United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division. Archived from the original on December 10, 2018.
  25. ^ Landsea, Chris; Anderson, Craig; Bredemeyer, William; Carrasco, Cristina; Charles, Noel; Chenoweth, Michael; Clark, Gil; Delgado, Sandy; Dunion, Jason; Ellis, Ryan; Fernandez-Partagas, Jose; Feuer, Steve; Gamanche, John; Glenn, David; Hagen, Andrew; Hufstetler, Lyle; Mock, Cary; Neumann, Charlie; Perez Suarez, Ramon; Prieto, Ricardo; Sanchez-Sesma, Jorge; Santiago, Adrian; Sims, Jamese; Thomas, Donna; Lenworth, Woolcock; Zimmer, Mark (May 2015). "Documentation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Changes in HURDAT". Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (Metadata). Miami, Florida: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved January 30, 2025.
  26. ^ Franklin, James (January 31, 2008). Hurricane Dean (PDF) (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved January 30, 2025.
  27. ^ Reeves, Jay; Farrington, Brendan (10 October 2018). "Hurricane Michael devastates Mexico Beach, Florida, in historic Category 4 landfall". Sun-Sentinel. Associated Press. Archived from the original on 11 October 2018. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  28. ^ Klotzbach, Philip [@philklotzbach] (10 October 2018). "Table of 10 Strongest Continental US Landfalling #Hurricanes on Record as Ranked by Maximum Sustained Wind. Michael Ranks Fourth with Sustained Winds of 135 knots (155 mph) at Landfall" (Tweet). Retrieved 10 October 2018 – via Twitter.
  29. ^ Klotzbach, Philip (11 October 2018). "Michael Made History as One of the Top Four Strongest Hurricanes to Strike the United States". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 11 October 2018. Retrieved 11 October 2018.
  30. ^ Uhlhorn, Eric; Lorsolo, Sylvie (10 October 2018). "Why Hurricane Michael's Landfall Is Historic". Air-Worldwide. Archived from the original on 16 October 2018. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  31. ^ Klotzbach, Philip [@philklotzbach] (10 October 2018). "Hurricane Michael has Made Landfall with Max Sustained Winds of 155 mph - the First Category 5 Hurricane to Make Landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Record" (Tweet). Retrieved 10 October 2018 – via Twitter.
Wikimedia Commons has media related to Hurricane Michael.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Meteorological_history_of_Hurricane_Michael&oldid=993961976"