Cocoa crisis (2024–present)

As of February 2025, cocoa prices have repeatedly hit record highs since 2024, after consecutive growing seasons in West Africa were impacted by weather and disease.

Chocolate has been described as an example of the lipstick effect: a relatively affordable luxury product which retains sales during economic downturns.^[1]

While most cocoa is produced in West and Central Africa, most chocolate is consumed in North America and Europe.^[2] As of 2024, Ivory Coast and Ghana alone produced 60% of the world's cocoa.^[3] In these two countries, cocoa beans are sold in advance of the October–September growing season via government contracts to trading houses, the three largest being Cargill, Olam and Barry Callebaut. These contracts are traded on futures exchanges, markets which ultimately determine how much cocoa beans will cost.^[4] Since the 1980s, cocoa futures had generally stayed around $3,500 per tonne.^[5]

Both Ghana and the Ivory Coast's production was impacted by weather patterns exacerbated by climate change. The CEO of the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) cited the effects of El Niño as responsible for the cocoa production decrease.^[3] While underlying conditions existed, the episode of severe weather is attributed by Business Insider as the "tipping point".^[5]

According to The Cocoa Health and Extension Division of COCOBOD, 81% of the Western North region of Ghana has been affected by cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV). The region is responsible for most production in Ghana.^[3]

Production in Ghana was further hindered by cocoa smuggling and gold mining.^[3][4] Production generally was also impacted by cocoa growers moving away from the growing the crop after deciding it did not pay enough,^[6] increased production costs and poor management of the cocoa industry.^[4]

Cocoa prices fluctuated in June 2024. In London, cocoa prices reached a high of $11,530 per tonne on June 13; the previous year, prices had averaged $3,182. Although effects were similarly observed on the New York market, which reached US$10,782 per tonne, effects were less prominent due to greater European consumption of West African cocoa.^[3] Price volatility was exacerbated by rapid speculative movement.^[5] To avoid the risks from price fluctuations, hedge funds exited the futures market in the first few months of 2024, reducing liquidity in the market, exacerbating instability and further increasing prices.^[4] Despite prices falling slightly later in the year, in late-December prices rose rapidly again,^[7] with futures markets hit another record high on December 18, 2024.^[4] As of February 2025, prices were still elevated at December and January levels.^[7]

In early 2024, Ghana delayed the delivery of 350,000 tonnes of cocoa beans until the next season,^[3] further increasing prices.^[4] In July 2024, the COCOBOD and confectionery manufacturer Mars Wrigley announced they were developing technology to identify early infection of CSSV.^[3] Businesses producing chocolate shuttered worldwide.^[5]

In 2024, it was reported in Confectionery News that a recent National Confectioners Association research had found 45% of those surveyed cut down on chocolate spending, by switching attributes of chocolate consumed such as brand and size.^[1]

In 2024, anthropologist Carla Martin described issues around cocoa production as a wicked problem. She said that the crisis highlighted what she saw as the question of "what is actually in the best interests of cocoa producers as they define their best interest?"^[8] Changes in the price of cocoa did not significantly impact the income of cocoa growers due to the complexities of the supply chain.^[9]

• Cocoa production in Ghana
• Cocoa production in Ivory Coast