2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina

2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina
	Tillis: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% ; Hagan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: No Vote:
U.S. senator before election; Kay Hagan; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Thom Tillis; Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary took place on May 6, 2014.

Incumbent Democratic senator Kay Hagan ran for re-election to a second term in office and lost to Republican Thom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives by about 45,000 votes and a margin of 1.6%.^[1] This made the election the second-closest race of the 2014 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Virginia.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Kay Hagan, incumbent U.S. senator^[2]^[3]
Ernest T. Reeves,^[4] retired U.S. Army captain^[5]
Will Stewart, small business owner^[6]

Withdrew

Fred Westphal, retired University of Miami professor and political activist^[7]^[8]

Results

Democratic primary election results^[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kay Hagan (incumbent)	372,209	77.16%
	Democratic	Will Stewart	66,903	13.87%
	Democratic	Ernest T. Reeves	43,257	8.97%
Total votes			482,369	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

The eight Republican candidates on the 2014 U.S. Senate primary ballot were the most in party history in North Carolina, more than the seven on the ballot in the 2002 Republican primary won by Elizabeth Dole.^[10]

Declared

Ted Alexander, former mayor of Shelby^[11]
Alex Bradshaw^[4]
Greg Brannon, physician and Tea Party activist^[12]
Heather Grant, nurse practitioner^[13]
Mark Harris, pastor of First Baptist Church of Charlotte and president of the Baptist State Convention of North Carolina^[14]
Edward Kryn, retired physician^[15]
James Snyder Jr., former state representative, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2002 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2004^[16]
Thom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives^[3]^[17]

Withdrew

Terry Embler, police detective^[18]^[19]
Bill Flynn, radio host and candidate for North Carolina's 6th congressional district in 2012^[20]^[21]

Declined

Phil Berger, President pro tempore of the North Carolina Senate^[3]^[18]^[22]
Cherie K. Berry, North Carolina Commissioner of Labor^[23]
Peter S. Brunstetter, state senator^[24]^[25]
James P. Cain, attorney and former United States Ambassador to Denmark^[3]^[26]
Renee Ellmers, U.S. representative^[27]
Dan Forest, Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina^[28]
Virginia Foxx, U.S. representative^[29]
George Holding, U.S. representative^[18]
Patrick McHenry, U.S. representative^[30]
Sue Myrick, former U.S. representative and former Mayor of Charlotte^[3]
Robert Pittenger, U.S. representative^[18]
Kieran Shanahan, attorney^[3]
Lynn Wheeler, former member of the Charlotte City Council and former mayor pro tempore of Charlotte^[31]

Endorsements

Greg Brannon

Politicians

Terry Embler, police detective and withdrawn candidate for the U.S. Senate^[32]
Mike Lee, U.S. senator (R-UT)^[33]
Thomas Massie, U.S. representative (R-KY)^[34]
Rand Paul, U.S. senator (R-KY)^[35]
Ron Paul, former U.S. representative (R-TX)^[36]

Political figures

Ann Coulter, author and conservative political commentator^[37]
Erick Erickson, conservative pundit and editor-in-chief of RedState^[38]
Mark Levin, author and conservative radio host^[39]

Organisations

Mark Harris

Peter S. Brunstetter, former state senator^[43]
Warren T. Daniel, state senator^[44]
Robin Hayes, former U.S. representative and former chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party^[45]
Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas^[46]
Buck Newton, state senator^[44]
Dan Soucek, state senator^[44]

Jim Snyder

Greensboro News & Record^[47]

Thom Tillis

Organizations

Politicians

Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida^[49]
Pat McCrory, Governor of North Carolina^[50]
Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 presidential nominee ^[51]

State legislators

Harry Brown, state senator^[52]
David Curtis, state senator^[52]
Jim Davis, state senator^[52]
Thom Goolsby, state senator^[52]
Rick Gunn, state senator^[52]
Fletcher L. Hartsell, Jr., state senator^[52]
Brent Jackson, state senator^[52]
Wesley Meredith, state senator^[52]
Bill Rabon, state senator^[52]
Ron Rabin, state senator^[52]
Bob Rucho, state senator^[52]
Jeff Tarte, state senator^[52]
Tommy Tucker, state senator^[52]
Trudy Wade, state senator^[52]
Dean Arp, state representative^[52]
Marilyn Avila, state representative^[52]
John Bell, state representative^[52]
Jamie Boles, state representative^[52]
Bill Brawley, state representative^[52]
Brian Brown, state representative^[52]
Rayne Brown, state representative^[52]
Rob Bryan, state representative^[52]
Dana Bumgardner, state representative^[52]
Justin Burr, state representative^[52]
Rick Catlin, state representative^[52]
Jeff Collins, state representative^[52]
N. Leo Daughtry, state representative^[52]
Ted Davis, state representative^[52]
Jimmy Dixon, state representative^[52]
Josh Dobson, state representative^[52]
Nelson Dollar, state representative^[52]
John Faircloth, state representative^[52]
Jim Fulghum, state representative^[52]
Mike Hager, state representative^[52]
Jon Hardister, state representative^[52]
Mark Hollo, state representative^[52]
Craig Horn, state representative^[52]
Julia C. Howard, state representative^[52]
Pat Hurley, state representative^[52]
Frank Iler, state representative^[52]
Charlie Jeter, state representative^[52]
Linda P. Johnson, state representative^[52]
Donny Lambeth, state representative^[52]
J. H. Langdon, state representative^[52]
Chris Malone, state representative^[52]
Susan Martin, state representative^[52]
Pat McElraft, state representative^[52]
Chuck McGrady, state representative^[52]
Allen McNeill, state representative^[52]
Tim Moffitt, state representative^[52]
Tim Moore, state representative^[52]
Tom Murry, state representative^[52]
Michele Presnell, state representative^[52]
Nathan Ramsey, state representative^[52]
Steve Ross, state representative^[52]
Jason Saine, state representative^[52]
Ruth Samuelson, state representative^[52]
Jacqueline Schaffer, state representative^[52]
Mitchell S. Setzer, state representative^[52]
Phil Shepard, state representative^[52]
Paul Stam, state representative^[52]
Sarah Stevens, state representative^[52]
Mike C. Stone, state representative^[52]
John Szoka, state representative^[52]
John Torbett, state representative^[52]
Rena Turner, state representative^[52]
Roger West, state representative^[52]
Roger Younts, state representative^[52]

Polling

Primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ted Alexander	Alex Bradshaw	Greg Brannon	Heather Grant	Mark Harris	Edward Kryn	Jim Snyder	Thom Tillis	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[53]	February 6–9, 2014	305	± 5.6%	10%	—	13%	13%	8%	2%	—	20%	34%
American Insights^[54]	February 11–15, 2014	168	± 7.6%	—	—	4%	4%	7%	—	—	11%	74%
Public Policy Polling^[53]	March 6–9, 2014	392	± 5%	7%	6%	14%	11%	7%	1%	4%	14%	36%
SurveyUSA^[55]	March 17–19, 2014	405	± 5%	7%	4%	15%	11%	6%	3%	4%	28%	23%
SurveyUSA^[56]	March 19–23, 2014	405	± 5%	1%	2%	13%	5%	9%	0%	5%	27%	38%
SurveyUSA^[57]	March 27–31, 2014	433	± 4.8%	6%	1%	15%	6%	11%	2%	3%	23%	34%
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 3–6, 2014	314	± 5.5%	6%	5%	15%	7%	11%	1%	2%	18%	34%
SurveyUSA^[59]	April 16–22, 2014	392	± 5%	1%	1%	20%	2%	15%	2%	2%	39%	19%
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 26–28, 2014	694	± 3.7%	2%	1%	20%	5%	11%	2%	3%	46%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[60]	May 3–4, 2014	925	± 3.2%	2%	0%	28%	4%	15%	1%	1%	40%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Berger	Greg Brannon	Jim Cain	Renee Ellmers	Bill Flynn	Virginia Foxx	Heather Grant	Mark Harris	Thom Tillis	Lynn Wheeler	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[61]	June 12–14, 2013	374	± 5.1%	11%	7%	8%	9%	—	23%	—	4%	9%	3%	27%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	July 12–14, 2013	373	± 5.1%	11%	7%	11%	11%	—	16%	—	1%	5%	3%	35%
				22%	—	—	18%	—	—	—	—	21%	—	39%
				—	—	—	25%	—	—	—	—	32%	—	43%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	August 8–11, 2013	344	± 5.3%	9%	7%	9%	—	—	18%	4%	4%	8%	2%	40%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	August 8–11, 2013	344	± 5.3%	22%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	23%	—	56%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	September 6–9, 2013	311	± 5.6%	13%	6%	11%	—	—	—	8%	5%	12%	2%	43%
Public Policy Polling^[65]	November 8–11, 2013	498	± 4.4%	—	11%	—	—	—	—	8%	14%	20%	—	47%
Public Policy Polling^[66]	December 5–8, 2013	529	± 4.3%	—	11%	—	—	8%	—	11%	12%	13%	—	44%
Public Policy Polling^[67]	January 9–12, 2014	575	± 4.1%	—	11%	—	—	7%	—	11%	8%	19%	—	44%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Berger	Cherie Berry	Greg Brannon	Renee Ellmers	Terry Embler	Dan Forest	Virginia Foxx	George Holding	Patrick McHenry	Thom Tillis	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 7–10, 2013	518	± 4.3%	7%	18%	5%	10%	1%	—	18%	3%	10%	3%	27%
Public Policy Polling^[69]	March 7–10, 2013	530	± 4.3%	8%	12%	4%	10%	1%	18%	13%	—	7%	2%	24%
Public Policy Polling^[70]	April 11–14, 2013	468	± 4.5%	11%	18%	6%	12%	1%	—	13%	—	—	7%	32%
Public Policy Polling^[71]	May 17–20, 2013	366	± 5.1%	10%	14%	7%	10%	—	—	15%	—	—	6%	38%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Berger	Renee Ellmers	Virginia Foxx	George Holding	Richard Hudson	Patrick McHenry	Mark Meadows	Sue Myrick	Robert Pittenger	Thom Tillis	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[72]	December 6–9, 2012	462	± 4.6%	—	11%	17%	9%	6%	13%	4%	14%	—	2%	25%
Public Policy Polling^[73]	January 10–13, 2013	449	± 4.6%	5%	11%	21%	2%	5%	15%	—	—	6%	2%	33%

Runoff

Hypothetical runoff polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Greg Brannon	Thom Tillis	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 26–28, 2014	694	± 3.7%	32%	50%	18%
Public Policy Polling^[60]	May 3–4, 2014	925	± 3.2%	40%	46%	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Harris	Thom Tillis	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 26–28, 2014	694	± 3.7%	27%	53%	20%
Public Policy Polling^[60]	May 3–4, 2014	925	± 3.2%	34%	49%	16%

Results

Republican primary election results^[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Thom Tillis	223,174	45.68%
	Republican	Greg Brannon	132,630	27.15%
	Republican	Mark Harris	85,727	17.55%
	Republican	Heather Grant	22,971	4.70%
	Republican	Jim Snyder	9,414	1.93%
	Republican	Ted Alexander	9,258	1.89%
	Republican	Alex Lee Bradshaw	3,528	0.72%
	Republican	Edward Kryn	1,853	0.38%
Total votes			488,555	100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Tim D'Annunzio, businessman, Republican candidate for NC-08 in 2010 and Republican nominee for NC-04 in 2012^[74]
Sean Haugh, pizza delivery man and nominee for this seat in 2002^[75]

Results

Libertarian primary election results^[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Sean Haugh	1,226	60.69%
	Libertarian	Tim D'Annunzio	794	39.31%
Total votes			2,020	100.00%

Other parties

Certified write-in candidates

Barry Gurney, small business owner^[76]
John W. Rhodes, former Republican state representative^[76]
David Waddell, Constitution Party member and former Indian Trail town councilman^[76]^[77]

General election

Candidates

Kay Hagan (D), incumbent U.S. senator
Sean Haugh (L), pizza delivery man and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002
Thom Tillis (R), Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives

Outside spending

In July 2014, Jim Morrill of The Charlotte Observer calculated that as of the end of June, more than $26 million had been spent by outside advocacy groups on the election, with $17 million of it attacking Hagan or supporting Tillis and less than $9 million supporting Hagan or attacking Tillis. By contrast, outside groups spent $25 million during the entire 2008 election. He reported that only $11.4 million had been reported to the FEC, with the rest of the "dark money" coming from groups that did not have to disclose their donors. 27% of the money spent supporting Tillis came from groups required to disclose their donors whereas 69% of the money supporting Hagan did so.^[78]

OpenSecrets placed the final cost of outside spending at $8.5 million for Hagan and $35.5 million attacking Tillis, and $13.7 million for Tillis and $20.9 million attacking Hagan, placing the totals by candidate at $44 million for Hagan, and $34.6 million for Tillis.^[79]

Debates

Three televised debates between the candidates were held: the first on September 3 moderated by Norah O'Donnell of CBS, the second on October 7 moderated by George Stephanopoulos of ABC, and the third (the only one to feature Sean Haugh) on October 9 moderated by Jon Evans of WECT-TV.^[80]

Video of the first debate is available here, with the second here and the third here.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[81]	Tossup	November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[82]	Lean D	November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report^[83]	Tossup	November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics^[84]	Tossup	November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Thom Tillis (R)	Sean Haugh (L)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[72]	December 6–9, 2012	578	± 4.1%	48%	38%	—	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[73]	January 10–13, 2013	608	± 4%	47%	37%	—	—	16%
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 7–10, 2013	600	± 4%	46%	38%	—	—	16%
Public Policy Polling^[69]	March 7–10, 2013	611	± 4%	50%	36%	—	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[70]	April 11–14, 2013	601	± 4%	49%	39%	—	—	11%
Public Policy Polling^[71]	May 17–20, 2013	500	± 4.4%	48%	41%	—	—	11%
Public Policy Polling^[61]	June 12–14, 2013	500	± 4.4%	45%	40%	—	—	15%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	July 12–14, 2013	600	± 4%	49%	38%	—	—	12%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	August 8–11, 2013	600	± 4%	47%	39%	—	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	September 6–9, 2013	600	± 4%	51%	36%	—	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[85]	October 4–6, 2013	746	± ?%	47%	40%	—	—	13%
Public Policy Polling^[65]	November 8–11, 2013	701	± 4%	44%	42%	—	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[66]	December 5–8, 2013	1,281	± 2.7%	44%	42%	—	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[67]	January 9–12, 2014	1,384	± 2.6%	42%	43%	—	—	15%
Harper Polling^[86]	January 20–21, 2014	778	± 3.51%	44%	44%	—	—	12%
Rasmussen Reports^[87]	January 22–23, 2014	500	± 4.5%	40%	47%	—	3%	10%
Public Policy Polling^[53]	February 6–9, 2014	708	± 3.7%	40%	42%	—	—	17%
American Insights^[54]	February 11–15, 2014	611	± 4%	38%	35%	—	—	26%
Hickman Analytics^[88]	February 17–20, 2014	400	± 4.9%	45%	41%	—	—	13%
Public Policy Polling^[89]	March 6–9, 2014	884	± 3.3%	45%	43%	—	—	13%
SurveyUSA^[57]	March 27–31, 2014	1,489	± 2.6%	45%	46%	—	—	9%
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 3–6, 2014	740	± 3.6%	43%	41%	—	—	16%
New York Times/Kaiser Family^[90]	April 8–15, 2014	900	± ?	42%	40%	—	5%	14%
Magellan Strategies^[91]	April 14–15, 2014	804	± 3.46%	43%	43%	—	8%	6%
Rasmussen Reports^[92]	May 7–8, 2014	750	± 4%	44%	45%	—	5%	7%
Public Policy Polling^[93]	May 9–11, 2014	877	± 3.3%	38%	36%	11%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling^[93]	May 9–11, 2014	877	± 3.3%	41%	41%	��	—	18%
Civitas Institute^[94]	May 20–22, 2014	600	± 4%	36%	39%	8%	—	15%
Civitas Institute^[94]	May 20–22, 2014	600	± 4%	41%	46%	—	—	12%
Magellan Strategies^[95]	June 5–8, 2014	700	± 3.7%	47%	46%	—	—	7%
Public Policy Polling^[96]	June 12–15, 2014	1,076	± 3%	39%	34%	11%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling^[96]	June 12–15, 2014	1,076	± 3%	42%	38%	—	—	20%
Civitas Institute^[97]	June 18–19 & 22, 2014	600	± 4%	42%	36%	9%	—	12%
Civitas Institute^[97]	June 18–19 & 22, 2014	600	± 4%	47%	43%	—	—	9%
Public Policy Polling^[98]	July 17–20, 2014	1,062	± 3%	41%	34%	8%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling^[98]	July 17–20, 2014	1,062	± 3%	42%	39%	—	—	19%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov^[99]	July 5–24, 2014	2,678	± 3.5%	44%	45%	—	2%	7%
Gravis Marketing^[100]	July 22–27, 2014	1,380	± 3%	44%	41%	—	—	15%
Civitas Institute^[101]	July 28–29, 2014	600	± 4%	41%	39%	7%	—	12%
Civitas Institute^[101]	July 28–29, 2014	600	± 4%	43%	45%	—	—	10%
Rasmussen Reports^[102]	August 5–6, 2014	750	± 4%	40%	45%	—	6%	9%
Public Policy Polling^[103]	August 14–17, 2014	856	± 3.4%	42%	38%	8%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling^[103]	August 14–17, 2014	856	± 3.4%	43%	42%	—	—	14%
Suffolk University^[104]	August 16–19, 2014	500	± 4.4%	45.4%	43%	5.2%	—	6.4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov^[105]	August 18 – September 2, 2014	2,059	± 3%	42%	43%	5%	0%	10%
Garin-Hart-Yang^[106]	September 3–6, 2014	802	± 3.5%	48%	45%	—	—	7%
Elon University^[107]	September 5–9, 2014	629 LV	± 3.91%	44.9%	40.8%	—	9.1%	5.2%
Elon University^[107]	September 5–9, 2014	983 RV	± 3.13%	42.7%	36.8%	—	10.7%	9.8%
American Insights^[108]	September 5–10, 2014	459	± 4.6%	46%	36%	6%	—	13%
Rasmussen Reports^[109]	September 8–10, 2014	1,000	± 4%	45%	39%	—	6%	9%
Civitas Institute^[110]	September 9–10, 2014	490	± 4.5%	46%	43%	5%	—	6%
Civitas Institute^[110]	September 9–10, 2014	490	± 4.5%	47%	46%	—	—	7%
Public Policy Polling^[111]	September 11–14, 2014	1,266	± 2.8%	44%	40%	5%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling^[111]	September 11–14, 2014	1,266	± 2.8%	46%	42%	—	—	12%
Fox News^[112]	September 14–16, 2014	605	± 4%	41%	36%	6%	—	13%
High Point University^[113]	September 13–18, 2014	410	± 5%	42%	40%	6%	—	12%
Global Strategy Group^[114]	September 16–18, 2014	600	± 4.9%	45%	41%	5%	—	9%
Gravis Marketing^[115]	September 22–23, 2014	860	± 3%	46%	42%	—	—	12%
CNN/ORC^[116]	September 22–25, 2014	595 LV	± 4%	46%	43%	7%	—	4%
CNN/ORC^[116]	September 22–25, 2014	860	± 3.5%	46%	39%	9%	—	6%
Civitas^[117]	September 25, 27–28, 2014	600	± 4%	46%	41%	4%	1%	8%
Civitas^[117]	September 25, 27–28, 2014	860	± 3.5%	50%	43%	—	—	8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov^[118]	September 20 – October 1, 2014	2,002	± 3%	46%	45%	2%	1%	6%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner^[119]	September 25 – October 1, 2014	1,000	± 2.09%	45%	41%	—	14%
NBC News/Marist^[120]	September 27 – October 1, 2014	665 LV	± 3.8%	44%	40%	7%	<1%	9%
NBC News/Marist^[120]	September 27 – October 1, 2014	1,132 RV	± 2.9%	42%	37%	8%	1%	12%
Morey Group^[121]	October 1–6, 2014	956	± 3.2%	40.1%	37.8%	—	2%	20.2%
Suffolk University^[122]	October 4–7, 2014	500	± 4.4%	46.8%	45.4%	4.4%	—	3.4%
Rasmussen Reports^[123]	October 6–7, 2014	970	± 3%	48%	46%	—	2%	4%
High Point University^[124]	September 30 – October 2 and October 4–9, 2014	584	± 4.1%	39.5%	40.4%	7%	—	13%
SurveyUSA^[125]	October 10–12, 2014	554	± 4.2%	44%	41%	7%	—	8%
SurveyUSA^[125]	October 10–12, 2014	554	± 4.2%	45%	46%	—	—	9%
Civitas Institute^[126]	October 15–18, 2014	600	± 4%	41%	42%	6%	—	11%
Civitas Institute^[126]	October 15–18, 2014	600	± 4%	44%	44%	—	—	12%
Gravis Marketing^[127]	October 16–18, 2014	1,022	± 3%	43%	48%	—	—	9%
Public Policy Polling^[128]	October 16–18, 2014	780	± 3.5%	46%	43%	5%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling^[128]	October 16–18, 2014	780	± 3.5%	47%	44%	—	—	8%
SurveyUSA^[129]	October 16–20, 2014	568	± 4.2%	46%	43%	6%	—	5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov^[118]	October 16–23, 2014	1,910	± 4%	44%	41%	2%	0%	13%
NBC News/Marist^[130]	October 19–23, 2014	756 LV	± 3.6%	43%	43%	7%	<1%	6%
NBC News/Marist^[130]	October 19–23, 2014	1,070 RV	± 3%	42%	40%	8%	1%	9%
SurveyUSA^[131]	October 21–25, 2014	802	± 4%	44%	44%	5%	3%	5%
Elon University^[132]	October 21–25, 2014	687 LV	± 3.74%	44.7%	40.7%	—	6.3%	6.6%
Elon University^[132]	October 21–25, 2014	996 RV	± 3.11%	44.8%	37.5%	—	7.7%	8.5%
Monmouth University^[133]	October 23–26, 2014	432	± 4.7%	48%	46%	1%	—	4%
Vox Populi^[134]	October 26–27, 2014	615	± 3.95%	43%	48%	—	—	9%
Public Policy Polling^[135]	October 28–29, 2014	657	± ?	47%	46%	4%	—	3%
Rasmussen Reports^[123]	October 28–29, 2014	982	± 3%	47%	46%	—	3%	3%
CNN/ORC^[136]	October 27–30, 2014	559 LV	± 4%	48%	46%	4%	—	2%
CNN/ORC^[136]	October 27–30, 2014	896 RV	± 3.5%	47%	41%	8%	—	4%
Fox News^[137]	October 28–30, 2014	909	± 3%	43%	42%	4%	1%	9%
Harper Polling^[138]	October 28–30, 2014	511	± 4.34%	44%	46%	6%	—	4%
Harper Polling^[138]	October 28–30, 2014	511	± 4.34%	45%	48%	—	—	7%
Civitas Institute^[139]	October 29–30, 2014	600	± 4%	41%	41%	6%	—	10%
Civitas Institute^[139]	October 29–30, 2014	600	± 4%	45%	44%	—	—	11%
Gravis Marketing^[140]	October 29–30, 2014	1,006	± 3%	46%	47%	—	—	8%
YouGov^[141]	October 25–31, 2014	1,727	± 3%	44%	41%	—	3%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[142]	October 30–31, 2014	738	± ?	46%	45%	4%	—	5%
Public Policy Polling^[143]	November 1–3, 2014	1,333	± 2.7%	46%	44%	5%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling^[143]	November 1–3, 2014	1,333	± 2.7%	48%	46%	—	—	6%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Ted Alexander (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[53]	February 6–9, 2014	708	± 3.7%	38%	45%	17%
Public Policy Polling^[89]	March 6–9, 2014	884	± 3.3%	43%	45%	12%
SurveyUSA^[57]	March 27–31, 2014	1,489	± 2.6%	44%	46%	10%
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 3–6, 2014	740	± 3.6%	42%	43%	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Phil Berger (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[73]	January 10–13, 2013	608	± 4%	47%	38%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 7–10, 2013	600	± 4%	49%	38%	13%
Public Policy Polling^[69]	March 7–10, 2013	611	± 4%	51%	37%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[70]	April 11–14, 2013	601	± 4%	48%	39%	13%
Public Policy Polling^[71]	May 17–20, 2013	500	± 4.4%	46%	42%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[61]	June 12–14, 2013	500	± 4.4%	44%	40%	17%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	July 12–14, 2013	600	± 4%	49%	39%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	August 8–11, 2013	600	± 4%	47%	39%	14%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	September 6–9, 2013	600	± 4%	53%	36%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Cherie K. Berry (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 7–10, 2013	600	± 4%	46%	38%	16%
Public Policy Polling^[69]	March 7–10, 2013	611	± 4%	50%	38%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[70]	April 11–14, 2013	601	± 4%	46%	41%	13%
Public Policy Polling^[71]	May 17–20, 2013	500	± 4.4%	45%	45%	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Alex Bradshaw (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[89]	March 6–9, 2014	884	± 3.3%	43%	43%	14%
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 3–6, 2014	740	± 3.6%	41%	42%	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Greg Brannon (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 7–10, 2013	600	± 4%	48%	35%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling^[69]	March 7–10, 2013	611	± 4%	51%	36%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling^[70]	April 11–14, 2013	601	± 4%	49%	36%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling^[71]	May 17–20, 2013	500	± 4.4%	49%	40%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling^[61]	June 12–14, 2013	500	± 4.4%	44%	40%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	July 12–14, 2013	600	± 4%	49%	39%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	August 8–11, 2013	600	± 4%	47%	38%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	September 6–9, 2013	600	± 4%	52%	36%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling^[85]	October 4–6, 2013	746	± ?%	46%	40%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[65]	November 8–11, 2013	701	± 4%	43%	44%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[66]	December 5–8, 2013	1,281	± 2.7%	43%	45%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling^[67]	January 9–12, 2014	1,384	± 2.6%	41%	43%	—	16%
Rasmussen Reports^[87]	January 22–23, 2014	500	± 4.5%	39%	43%	4%	14%
Public Policy Polling^[53]	February 6–9, 2014	708	± 3.7%	40%	43%	—	17%
American Insights^[54]	February 11–15, 2014	611	± 4%	38%	36%	—	26%
Public Policy Polling^[89]	March 6–9, 2014	884	± 3.3%	43%	43%	—	14%
SurveyUSA^[57]	March 27–31, 2014	1,489	± 2.6%	45%	47%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 3–6, 2014	740	± 3.6%	40%	42%	—	18%
New York Times/Kaiser Family^[90]	April 8–15, 2014	900	± ?	41%	39%	4%	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	James P. Cain (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[71]	May 17–20, 2013	500	± 4.4%	48%	41%	11%
Public Policy Polling^[61]	June 12–14, 2013	500	± 4.4%	46%	38%	16%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	July 12–14, 2013	600	± 4%	49%	36%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	August 8–11, 2013	600	± 4%	46%	39%	14%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	September 6–9, 2013	600	± 4%	50%	37%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Renee Ellmers (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[72]	December 6–9, 2012	578	± 4.1%	45%	39%	19%
Public Policy Polling^[73]	January 10–13, 2013	608	± 4%	46%	40%	14%
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 7–10, 2013	600	± 4%	47%	38%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[69]	March 7–10, 2013	611	± 4%	49%	36%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[70]	April 11–14, 2013	601	± 4%	48%	40%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[71]	May 17–20, 2013	500	± 4.4%	48%	39%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[61]	June 12–14, 2013	500	± 4.4%	46%	39%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	July 12–14, 2013	600	± 4%	49%	36%	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Terry Embler (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 7–10, 2013	600	± 4%	48%	33%	20%
Public Policy Polling^[69]	March 7–10, 2013	611	± 4%	52%	33%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[70]	April 11–14, 2013	601	± 4%	47%	37%	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Bill Flynn (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[66]	December 5–8, 2013	1,281	± 2.7%	43%	45%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[67]	January 9–12, 2014	1,384	± 2.6%	42%	44%	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Dan Forest (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[69]	March 7–10, 2013	611	± 4%	50%	40%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Virginia Foxx (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[72]	December 6–9, 2012	578	± 4.1%	49%	39%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[73]	January 10–13, 2013	608	± 4%	47%	40%	13%
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 7–10, 2013	600	± 4%	48%	38%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[69]	March 7–10, 2013	611	± 4%	49%	37%	14%
Public Policy Polling^[70]	April 11–14, 2013	601	± 4%	48%	39%	13%
Public Policy Polling^[71]	May 17–20, 2013	500	± 4.4%	49%	42%	10%
Public Policy Polling^[61]	June 12–14, 2013	500	± 4.4%	46%	39%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	July 12–14, 2013	600	± 4%	49%	37%	13%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	August 8–11, 2013	600	± 4%	48%	39%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Heather Grant (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[63]	August 8–11, 2013	600	± 4%	47%	37%	16%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	September 6–9, 2013	600	± 4%	48%	36%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[65]	November 8–11, 2013	701	± 4%	43%	40%	17%
Public Policy Polling^[66]	December 5–8, 2013	1,281	± 2.7%	43%	43%	14%
Public Policy Polling^[67]	January 9–12, 2014	1,384	± 2.6%	41%	42%	17%
Public Policy Polling^[53]	February 6–9, 2014	708	± 3.7%	39%	41%	20%
Public Policy Polling^[89]	March 6–9, 2014	884	± 3.3%	43%	42%	15%
SurveyUSA^[57]	March 27–31, 2014	1,489	± 2.6%	44%	46%	10%
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 3–6, 2014	740	± 3.6%	39%	43%	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Mark Harris (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[71]	May 17–20, 2013	500	± 4.4%	46%	40%	13%
Public Policy Polling^[61]	June 12–14, 2013	500	± 4.4%	46%	37%	17%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	July 12–14, 2013	600	± 4%	49%	35%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	August 8–11, 2013	600	± 4%	46%	37%	16%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	September 6–9, 2013	600	± 4%	50%	36%	14%
Public Policy Polling^[85]	October 4–6, 2013	746	± ?%	46%	38%	16%
Public Policy Polling^[65]	November 8–11, 2013	701	± 4%	43%	41%	16%
Public Policy Polling^[66]	December 5–8, 2013	1,281	± 2.7%	43%	43%	14%
Public Policy Polling^[67]	January 9–12, 2014	1,384	± 2.6%	41%	43%	16%
Harper Polling^[86]	January 20–21, 2014	778	± 3.51%	44%	40%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[53]	February 6–9, 2014	708	± 3.7%	40%	42%	18%
American Insights^[54]	February 11–15, 2014	611	± 4%	39%	35%	26%
Public Policy Polling^[89]	March 6–9, 2014	884	± 3.3%	43%	43%	14%
SurveyUSA^[57]	March 27–31, 2014	1,489	± 2.6%	43%	47%	10%
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 3–6, 2014	740	± 3.6%	40%	44%	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	George Holding (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[72]	December 6–9, 2012	578	± 4.1%	48%	39%	13%
Public Policy Polling^[73]	January 10–13, 2013	608	± 4%	45%	37%	18%
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 7–10, 2013	600	± 4%	46%	36%	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Edward Kryn (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[53]	February 6–9, 2014	708	± 3.7%	40%	40%	20%
Public Policy Polling^[89]	March 6–9, 2014	884	± 3.3%	43%	41%	16%
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 3–6, 2014	740	± 3.6%	40%	41%	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Patrick McHenry (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[72]	December 6–9, 2012	578	± 4.1%	48%	40%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[73]	January 10–13, 2013	608	± 4%	45%	39%	16%
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 7–10, 2013	600	± 4%	45%	40%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[69]	March 7–10, 2013	611	± 4%	49%	39%	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Sue Myrick (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[72]	December 6–9, 2012	578	± 4.1%	45%	44%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Robert Pittenger (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[73]	January 10–13, 2013	608	± 4%	46%	38%	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Jim Snyder (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[89]	March 6–9, 2014	884	± 3.3%	42%	43%	15%
Public Policy Polling^[58]	April 3–6, 2014	740	± 3.6%	41%	41%	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kay Hagan (D)	Lynn Wheeler (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[61]	June 12–14, 2013	500	± 4.4%	45%	36%	19%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	July 12–14, 2013	600	± 4%	49%	34%	17%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	August 8–11, 2013	600	± 4%	47%	36%	17%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	September 6–9, 2013	600	± 4%	48%	35%	17%

Results

2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina^[144]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Thom Tillis	1,423,259	48.82%	+4.64%
	Democratic	Kay Hagan (incumbent)	1,377,651	47.26%	−5.39%
	Libertarian	Sean Haugh	109,100	3.74%	+0.57%
	Write-in		5,271	0.18%	+0.14%
Total votes			2,915,281	100.00%	N/A
	Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Caswell (largest city: Yanceyville)
Duplin (largest city: Wallace)
Franklin (largest city: Wake Forest)
Haywood (largest city: Waynesville)
Jones (largest city: Maysville)
Madison (largest city: Mars Hill)
Montgomery (largest city: Troy)
Chowan (largest municipality: Edenton)
Columbus (largest municipality: Whiteville)
Nash (largest municipality: Rocky Mount)
New Hanover (largest municipality: Wilmington)
Watauga (largest municipality: Boone)
Alamance (largest municipality: Burlington)
Brunswick (largest municipality: Leland)
Greene (largest municipality: Snow Hill)
Lee (largest municipality: Sanford)
Person (largest municipality: Roxboro)
Rockingham (largest municipality: Eden)
Yancey (largest municipality: Burnsville)
Pender (largest municipality: Hampstead)
Sampson (largest municipality: Clinton)
Swain (largest municipality: Cherokee)
Washington (largest municipality: Plymouth)

References

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External links

[1] "Republicans seize Senate, gaining full control of Congress". November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 5, 2014.

[2] "CNN: Sen. Kay Hagan to run again in 2014". Archived from the original on November 30, 2012. Retrieved November 28, 2012.

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[ncsbe-filings-4] "NC State Board of Elections: Candidate filing list" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 26, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2014.

[5] News & Observer: 2 long-shot Democrats challenge Kay Hagan

[6] News & Observer: Kay Hagan gets a challenger

[7] "Fayetteville Observer". Archived from the original on September 27, 2013. Retrieved September 27, 2013.

[8] SenatorWestphal.com Archived February 23, 2014, at the Wayback Machine - on his site, Westphal wrote: "I could not raise the $1470 filing fee for the Senate race in North Carolina, therefore, I am heading to Fort Myers on February 28th. It is my intention to file for the House of Representatives in the 11th District, which comprises of the Fort Myers area."

[primaryresults-9] NC State Board of Elections website

[10] Ostermeier, Eric (May 6, 2014). "North Carolina GOP Eyes 2nd Ever US Senate Primary Runoff". Smart Politics.

[11] Shelby Star

[12] "Dr. Greg Brannon steps up to challenge Hagan in 2014". Archived from the original on February 6, 2013. Retrieved February 11, 2013.

[13] Heather Grant to run for U.S. Senate seat - journalpatriot: News

[14] Trygstad, Kyle. "Conservative Preacher Joins North Carolina Senate Primary". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 15, 2013. Retrieved September 12, 2013.

[15] [1] Archived February 1, 2014, at the Wayback Machine

[16] WBTV/Associated Press

[17] WRAL/AP: Tillis says he'll run for US Senate^{[permanent dead link]}

[berry_nj-18] Mimms, Sarah (February 13, 2013). "N.C. Labor Commissioner Considering Run Against Hagan". National Journal. Archived from the original on February 21, 2013. Retrieved February 14, 2013.

[19] "Terry Embler - As many if not most have noticed, I have..." Facebook. May 14, 2013. Retrieved July 26, 2014.

[20] Fox 8

[21] John Frank (January 30, 2014). "Republican Bill Flynn takes early exit from US Senate race". News Observer. Retrieved January 31, 2014.

[22] News & Observer Under the Dome: Phil Berger won't run for US Senate

[23] Frank, John (May 29, 2013). "Cherie Berry says she won't run for U.S. Senate". The News & Observer. Retrieved May 29, 2013.

[24] Robertson, Gary D. (September 18, 2013). "Brunstetter considering US Senate bid". WRAL-TV. Associated Press. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 18, 2013.

[25] News & Observer Under the Dome: Pete Brunstetter says he won't seek US Senate seat

[26] Trygstad, Kyle (May 17, 2013). "Ambassador Eyeing Kay Hagan Challenge". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 5, 2013. Retrieved May 17, 2013.

[27] "House Republican Won't Run for Senate #NCSEN | At the Races". Archived from the original on December 22, 2015. Retrieved July 30, 2013.

[28] Morrill, Jim (March 13, 2013). "If nominated, he will not run ..." Campaign Tracker. Retrieved March 14, 2013.

[29] Cahn, Emily (August 20, 2013). "Virginia Foxx Says No to Senate Bid in North Carolina". Roll Call. Archived from the original on August 20, 2013. Retrieved August 20, 2013.

[30] Cahn, Emily (April 11, 2013). "North Carolina: McHenry Won't Run Against Hagan". Roll Call. Archived from the original on April 13, 2013. Retrieved April 11, 2013.

[31] Morrill, Jim (April 26, 2013). "Table Talk". Charlotte Business Journal. Retrieved May 18, 2013.

[32] "Terry Embler - As I am no longer in the running for the office, I..." Facebook. August 26, 2013. Retrieved September 11, 2014.

[33] Frank, John (March 6, 2014). "Utah Sen. Mike Lee endorses Greg Brannon in contested Senate primary". News and Observer. Retrieved March 6, 2014.

[34] Liberty Circle: Congressman Thomas Massie Endorses Greg Brannon for U.S. Senate

[35] "Rand Paul Endorses in North Carolina Primary". Roll Call. October 16, 2013. Archived from the original on October 17, 2013. Retrieved October 17, 2013.

[36] "Ron Paul 2014 Endorsements | LibertyPAC". Archived from the original on April 1, 2015. Retrieved March 19, 2014.

[37] "News & Observer: Coulter endorses Brannon, bashes Tillis". Archived from the original on March 10, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2013.

[38] Winston-Salem Journal

[39] "Mark Levin endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate". The Right Scoop. May 1, 2014. Retrieved July 26, 2014.

[40] FreedomWorks backs Brannon in N.C. - Katie Glueck - POLITICO.com

[41] "Gun Owners of America Endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate — Brannon for US Senate". Archived from the original on May 23, 2014. Retrieved March 19, 2014.

[42] "NAGR PAC Endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate — Brannon for US Senate". Archived from the original on June 10, 2015. Retrieved November 20, 2013.

[43] News & Observer Morning Memo (Nov. 25, 2013)

[3senators-44] News & Observer

[45] News & Observer

[46] "Charlotte Observer". Archived from the original on January 18, 2015. Retrieved January 16, 2014.

[47] N&R endorses Jim Snyder in Republican US Senate primary

[thehill.com-48] Romney endorses Tillis in North Carolina | TheHill

[49] ttp://atr.rollcall.com/2016-rand-paul-jeb-bush-north-carolina-senate Archived October 17, 2015, at the Wayback Machine http://atr.rollcall.com/2016-rand-paul-jeb-bush-north-carolina-senate/

[50] "Governor Pat McCrory endorses Thom Tillis in Senate race". Archived from the original on May 1, 2014. Retrieved May 29, 2020.

[51] Romney endorses Tillis | Under the Dome Blog | NewsObserver.com

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[75] "Charlotte Observer". Archived from the original on February 28, 2014. Retrieved February 27, 2014.

[certified-writein-76] "State Board of Elections: CERTIFIED UNAFFILIATED AND WRITE-IN CANDIDATES" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 11, 2014. Retrieved July 29, 2014.

[77] "Charlotte Observer: Indian Trail councilman tenders resignation – in Klingon". Archived from the original on January 3, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2014.

[78] "Outside spending, 'dark' money fuel N.C. Senate race". The Charlotte Observer. July 4, 2014. Retrieved September 3, 2014.

[79] "2014 Outside Spending, by Race". OpenSecrets. November 10, 2014. Archived from the original on April 26, 2021. Retrieved November 10, 2014.

[80] News & Observer: What NC voters might learn from final Hagan-Tillis debates

[81] "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

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[1]

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